Bitcoin’s value against gold has rebounded 40 percent since a February low, prompting speculation that a medium- to long-term bottom has been confirmed.

On April 30, blockchain media outlet Cointelegraph reported that bitcoin prices have repeatedly surged after sharp rebounds in the bitcoin-gold ratio. If that pattern repeats, bitcoin could rise to $167,250 by April 2027, the analysis said.

The key indicator in the analysis is the bitcoin-gold ratio, BTC/XAU. The metric shows how much stronger bitcoin is than gold in dollar terms. In the past, bitcoin’s cycle lows often coincided with rebounds after steep drops in the ratio. In 2015, bitcoin rose about 250 percent over a year after a BTC/XAU low. After reversals in 2019 and 2022, gains of about 140 percent followed each time. Excluding the 1,460 percent surge driven by the 2020 liquidity rally, the average one-year rise after a bottom is calculated at about 180 percent.

A similar trend has appeared this year. The BTC/XAU ratio has risen about 40 percent since a February low, and BTC/USD rose 32.65 percent over the same period. Nick Bhatia, founder of research firm Bitcoin Layer, said bitcoin is heading for a second straight month of closing higher after seven consecutive months of negative candles against gold, adding: "The rebound has already begun."

Further analysis based on chart signals has also emerged. Macro strategist Gert van Lagen pointed to a renewed confirmation of a "hidden bullish divergence" pattern that appeared after bear market bottoms in 2014, 2018 and 2022. Fidelity Investments also said in an April report that bitcoin has entered an "accumulation phase" as it shows a stronger trend than gold.

The market has also discussed the possibility of funds shifting from gold into bitcoin. Several analysts, including Bernstein's Gautam Chhugani, forecast bitcoin could reach $150,000 in 2026 on the back of such a shift. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan also said in April that bitcoin could surpass the $30 trillion gold market.

Short-term variables remain. BTC/XAU is still below its 100-month exponential moving average, a zone that formed major bottoms in March 2020 and December 2022. The downside break in January was the first clear case of that support line giving way, and failure to recover could trap bulls and further delay the relative recovery against gold.

On the daily chart, resistance from a rising wedge pattern is also a burden. If the pattern plays out, the value of bitcoin priced in gold could fall as much as 20 percent, calculations show. Macro conditions such as rising U.S. Treasury yields and firm oil prices are also cited as factors that could disrupt a repeat of past patterns. The cautious stance among derivatives market participants is another short-term point to watch.

The key point in the analysis is a focus on relative strength against gold rather than the bitcoin price itself. If the interpretation holds that the BTC/XAU rebound aligns with past cycle lows, speculation has emerged that the market may be more sensitive to shifts in fund flows between assets than to bitcoin’s absolute price.

$BTC / GOLD is breaking its 2026 downtrend, supported by Hidden Bullish Divergence. This setup has only appeared 3 times before — following the 2014, 2018, and 2022 bear market bottoms. Each instance: price formed a HL, while RSI printed a LL , followed by a downtrend… pic.twitter.com/0fMEe24tqN