Bitcoin short-term holders' profit-and-loss indicator has returned to positive territory after about 6 months. On Friday, blockchain media outlet CoinPost reported that CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said the 30-day moving average of SOPR for short-term holders has climbed above 1 again, indicating the market has entered an important juncture.

SOPR is an indicator showing whether moved bitcoin was in profit or in loss. A reading above 1 means profits are being realised on average, while below 1 indicates losses are being realised. The rebound means short-term holders have, on average, returned to around breakeven or a small-profit zone.

Even so, it is too early to conclude a trend reversal. In CryptoQuant's weekly bitcoin market report, the April rise in bitcoin was driven more by futures than by spot demand, and a futures-led price increase while spot demand is shrinking resembled a pattern seen ahead of the 2022 bear market.

The shift in the indicator is meaningful because it shows the average profit and loss of short-term holders has moved back above the threshold. But with a futures-led rally and past bear-market cases presented together, the market is being put to a test that will determine whether the trend can persist rather than simply signaling a rebound.