Bitcoin showed weakness in late April, but May seasonality and inflows into U.S.-listed spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are raising the possibility of further gains.

CoinDesk reported on April 30 local time that bitcoin has risen in May 7 times over the past 13 years, based on data since 2013.

The average return for May is about 8 percent. It is not as strong as October and November, but it suggests seasonality has still tilted toward gains. April’s rise was about 10 percent, prompting talk that the broader upward trend could hold. The S&P 500, which shows similar bullish seasonality, is also moving near record highs, supporting that view.

Institutional demand is also continuing. U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs drew net inflows of $1.32 billion in March and attracted more than $1.8 billion in April. With monthly net inflows extending for a second straight month, they are cited as a basis for a bullish view.

Still, short-term variables remain. Rising U.S. Treasury yields are weighing on risk assets broadly. Jake Kennis (제이크 케니스), a research analyst at Nansen, assessed that the market is digesting a "higher for longer" interest-rate signal after bitcoin failed to hold above $78,000 and slipped into the $75,000 range. Without a liquidity catalyst, bitcoin is more likely to trade in a range than to break out, and its 14-day return has been limited to 0.7 percent.

Geopolitical risks are also seen as a variable. Some observers, including energy analyst Anas Alhajji, warned that the negative impact of an Iran war and disruptions to energy markets could shake the global economy in May. Markus Thielen (마르쿠스 틸렌), founder of TenX Research, raised the same concern in a client report.

Technically, the 50-day moving average is increasingly likely to cross above the 100-day moving average. This is interpreted as a signal that short-term momentum has strengthened relative to the medium-term trend. Still, the indicator has shown mixed patterns in bear markets. A similar bullish cross appeared in March 2022, but bitcoin prices then fell for several more weeks.