There is growing speculation that bitcoin has entered a phase of building a short-term bottom. But it is not yet confirmed whether any rebound will be sustained, with the possibility of weakness in May, macroeconomic variables and uncertainty over the Middle East situation still in play.

On April 29, blockchain media outlet BeInCrypto reported that Coinbase Institutional and on-chain analytics firm Glassnode said in their second-quarter 2026 “Charting Crypto” report that major cryptocurrencies could recover in the latter part of the second quarter after forming a short-term low. Bitcoin’s net unrealized profit and loss indicator moved out of the fear zone and turned back to the optimism zone. In a survey, 75 percent of institutional investors and 71 percent of non-institutional investors viewed bitcoin as undervalued.

Ethereum showed a similar flow. Holdings held for less than 3 months fell 38 percent during the first quarter, while holdings held for more than 1 year rose 1 percent. That is read as a sign that long-term holders are filling the gap left by fading short-term speculative demand.

Views are split in the market over whether the bottom has been confirmed. Veteran investor Willy Woo recently presented an investor cost baseline around $79,000 and put the chances that bitcoin breaks above it in this attempt at about 30 percent. He said bitcoin is attempting to form a bottom but not all conditions are in place yet, and that the next 3 to 6 weeks are important.

Woo also said holding above $65,000 is the baseline that would make this rebound a structural shift. The market is watching the level as a key support line separating a simple short-term rebound from a trend reversal.

Crypto trader Ivan Liljeqvist, by contrast, is more cautious. He warned against complacency, saying bitcoin tends to fall sharply each May during bear markets. Bitcoin fell about 19 percent and 16 percent in May 2018 and May 2022, respectively. Some Mays, however, also saw sharp gains.

A DeFi researcher also said May has seen both big rallies and sharp drops, and pointed to volatility itself as the key. He said the phrase “sell in May” is not an absolute rule but is not a joke either, and that the current stretch calls for selective responses rather than aggressive bets.

In this situation, Coinbase viewed the environment as very difficult for short-term trading positioning. It said Middle East conflict and the possibility of macroeconomic shocks remain the biggest variables for the market. It also presented the risk that the current bottom-formation scenario could collapse if new central bank variables or geopolitical shocks emerge.

The next 3 to 6 weeks are expected to be a turning point that will determine bitcoin’s direction. The market is watching both whether $65,000 support holds and the chances of breaking above the $79,000 cost baseline. If bitcoin holds this zone, the short-term bottom call could gain traction, but if support breaks, concerns about May volatility could again move to the forefront of the market.