The bitcoin (BTC) bottom has not yet been confirmed and hitting a new record high within the year may not be easy, an outlook showed.

On April 28 (local time), blockchain media outlet Coindesk reported that Michael Terpin (마이클 터핀), an early bitcoin investor and author of “Bitcoin Supercycle,” said bitcoin could fall to around $57,000 in October this year before forming a bottom.

Terpin still viewed the market as in a bearish phase. He said it would be hard to call it a full-fledged bull market until bitcoin climbs back above $100,000, and that no such support signal has appeared yet. He said that despite the recent rebound, the market structure itself remains closer to a “bitcoin autumn” stage.

That differs somewhat from the market’s mainstream outlook. Many analysts view the low formed near $60,000 in February as the bottom of this correction. They cite the resumption of inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs and the fact that prices held up relatively well despite Middle East tensions and a sharp rise in oil prices.

Terpin said the recent moves resemble a late-cycle correction pattern repeated in past cycles. He said bitcoin has recently failed to break above the psychological resistance level of $80,000, and that high oil prices and macro uncertainty are weighing on it. He also said the market could keep making repeatedly lower highs until it enters a final capitulation phase.

Some experts also agreed on the possibility of further declines. Jason Fernandez (제이슨 페르난데스), a market analyst and co-founder of Andrewnum, said it is hard to conclude the market bottom is confirmed given that a full capitulation phase has not yet appeared. He said a sustainable bottom is usually formed when excessive leveraged positions are liquidated and macro uncertainty eases at the same time.

The macro environment was also cited as a burden. Fernandez said liquidity conditions remain tight and that the broader risk-asset market is in the process of adapting to a prolonged high-rate environment. He said downside volatility could continue until expectations of rate cuts become clearer or strong liquidations emerge across the crypto market.

Not all views completely rule out a record high within the year. Marty Greenspan (마티 그린스펀), founder of Quantum Economics, said Terpin’s outlook was overly pessimistic. He said there is still room for further gains this year and that a new record high is possible, given expanding institutional investment and rising market interest.

Interpretations of market sentiment also differ. Some analysts say investor sentiment has not yet reached the extreme fear levels seen at major bottoms in the past. That is interpreted as meaning the market could be shaken once more before it forms a stable bottom.

Ultimately, the market’s key issue is whether the low near $60,000 in February was the true bottom of this cycle. Terpin pointed to a possible $57,000 level in October, and other analysts, while differing on timing, also say it is too early to conclude the market has fully bottomed out.