[Digital Today reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] Scepticism is growing over forecasts that bitcoin (BTC) will reach $250,000 by year-end. Some bulls still foresee a super bull market, but the market is also issuing repeated warnings that the current downtrend may not be over.

According to blockchain media outlet Cointelegraph on April 28 (local time), bitcoin is trading about 40% below its all-time high of around $126,000 set in October 2025, despite a recent rebound. From current levels, it would need to rise more than threefold to reach $250,000 by year-end.

Some bulls, including billionaire investor Tim Draper and Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee, are sticking to their earlier forecasts. But the market is also seeing growing warnings of further declines based on technical analysis and past halving cycles.

A leading bear is veteran futures market trader Peter Brandt. He recently assessed that a 'bear flag' pattern is forming on bitcoin's daily chart. A bear flag is seen as a typical chart pattern that signals a possible further drop after a brief rebound during a downtrend.

Brandt explained that bitcoin recently showed signs of pulling back after being blocked by resistance around $79,500. If the correction continues, another outlook says it could slide in May to $69,000, the lower end of the channel. If even the lower support level breaks, the possibility of a further decline below $50,000 is also being raised.

A cycle-peak view tied to the halving cycle is also resurfacing. In the past, bitcoin formed a cycle top within 12 to 18 months after each of three halvings. Based on the April 2024 halving, one interpretation is that the $126,000 recorded in October 2025 could be the top of this cycle.

Another factor heightening market caution is a recurring 'May sell' pattern in U.S. midterm election years. Analyst Merlin the Trader pointed out that in each year with U.S. midterm elections, bitcoin began a steep decline around May. In 2014 it fell 61%, in 2018 it fell 65%, and in 2022 it fell 66%, with each decline beginning around May. Applying the same framework to 2026 yields a calculation that bitcoin could drop more than 60%, and in an extreme case fall to around $30,000.

This trend is also linked to variables in traditional financial markets. Matt Miller and Chris Buchbinder of Capital Group said in a February report that midterm elections increase uncertainty over the balance of power in Congress and the direction of policy. They said that when election rhetoric heats up in spring, investors tend to cut exposure to risk assets, delay buying and brace for heightened volatility.

As a result, the market's year-end outlook is divided. Bears are placing greater weight on the possibility that the 2025 peak has passed and on seasonal decline patterns. Others, including analysts on the Bernstein side, still see room for bitcoin to rebound into a $100,000 to $150,000 range.

Even so, the figures being presented vary widely despite focusing on the same market. While the $250,000 bullish case persists, different downside scenarios are being discussed at the same time, including $69,000 on chart analysis, below $50,000, and around $30,000. In this situation, market attention is focused on the scale of any May correction and whether the October 2025 peak was in fact the top of this halving cycle.