A forecast has emerged that bitcoin could reach $125,000 by the end of the year.

On April 28 (local time), blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that Arthur Hayes (아서 헤이즈), a former BitMEX co-founder, expects bitcoin to strengthen, citing an expansion of U.S. credit, rising defence spending and a policy framework aimed at supporting the Treasury market.

Hayes, who currently serves as chief investment officer at Maelstrom, presented a $125,000 year-end bitcoin target at the Bitcoin Vegas 2026 event. With bitcoin currently around $76,600, that would require an additional rise of about 63 percent.

The first factor Hayes highlighted was greater lending capacity in the U.S. financial sector. He explained that changes to the “enhanced supplementary leverage ratio” system implemented from April 1 reduced the reserve burden relative to assets at global banks such as JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup. S&P Global estimated that this adjustment alone could create about $1.3 trillion in new lending capacity.

Hayes argued that if those funds lead to additional lending within the financial sector, the total scale of credit supply could approach $4 trillion. He said such liquidity could offset a credit contraction that occurred during the spread of artificial intelligence (AI). He then likened AI to a “new subprime,” describing it as a factor that has replaced labour and pressured technology company revenue.

He also pointed to a second basis, saying the market’s focus is shifting from AI-driven deflation to wartime inflation. Hayes said that since the outbreak of war in February, bitcoin has shown a stronger trend than the Nasdaq, software-as-a-service (SaaS) stocks and safe-haven assets such as gold and silver.

He said that after clashes between the United States and Iran intensified, governments have been increasing defence spending, and he cited expectations that U.S. defence spending could approach $1.5 trillion as another backdrop for expanding liquidity. Hayes said, “The U.S. will print more money and buy more bombs,” and argued bitcoin could strengthen in such an environment.

A third point around concerns over monetary tightening was the structure for maintaining demand for U.S. Treasuries. Hayes said he does not expect liquidity to shrink sharply even under a Kevin Warsh-led Federal Reserve and a Treasury Department under Secretary Scott Bessent. With U.S. national debt exceeding $38 trillion, he said both institutions must keep Treasury demand stable.

He explained that in practice there could be a structural adjustment in which banks swap reserves for Treasuries and repurchase agreements (RP). Even if the Fed’s balance sheet appears to have shrunk, he argued that from the market’s perspective the effect of money circulation is maintained. He also said that with overseas demand for U.S. Treasuries stagnant, U.S. institutions will have to absorb more issuance, making credit expansion unavoidable.

Hayes ultimately judged that a phase in which credit expansion, rising fiscal spending and policy support operate at the same time is creating an environment for bitcoin to rise. While he said volatility could continue, he added that structurally the conditions are in place for bitcoin to head toward $125,000 by year-end.

HAYES SAYS BITCOIN IS GOING TO $125,000. But that's not all he said... This was easily one of the most eye-opening interviews I've ever had and the details WILL shock you. From macro to micro, @cryptohayes keeps you on your feet with the alpha we NEED to hear. Full video… pic.twitter.com/mFLYYmh3Vr