[DigitalToday reporter Yeseul Kim] Bitcoin (BTC) is staying in the $60,000 to $70,000 range and has not established a clear direction.

CoinPost, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Wednesday local time that on-chain analytics firm Glassnode said market conviction is weak as there is a lack of catalysts to drive a breakout.

Glassnode said a strong supply cluster (URPD) has formed in the $80,000 to $126,000 range, acting as resistance to gains. It said breaking above the top of the range would require either a sharp decline accompanied by new inflows, or a prolonged redistribution in which long-term holders absorb stop-loss selling.

It said supply overhang was confirmed through a supply metric. The circulating supply of bitcoin last bought at prices above the current level was estimated at about 8.4 million BTC. Over the past month, 8 million to 9 million BTC have remained in a loss zone, and Glassnode said the structure is similar to the second-quarter 2022 bear market. At the time, loss supply above 8 million BTC fell to around 5 million BTC as about 3 million BTC shifted through redistribution such as stop-loss selling and new inflows.

It also said realised losses among long-term holders who have held for at least 6 months in this cycle averaged about $200 million a day on a 30-day basis. Glassnode said long-term holders are in the middle of capitulation, but selling pressure has not yet been exhausted. As a benchmark for identifying a bottom, it suggested realised losses falling below $25 million a day.

In the spot market, Coinbase's spot volume delta (buy-sell difference) 30-day moving average turned slightly positive. Glassnode said the size is small, making it closer to waiting on the sidelines than conviction buying.

Corporate treasury demand has shifted from broad accumulation flows to a structure that relies on purchases by a limited set of participants such as Strategy. It also cited a case in which mining firm Marathon sold about 15,000 BTC as an example of a company reducing its holdings.

In derivatives, the directional premium on perpetual futures (30-day cumulative) shrank to near zero and then turned slightly negative. Implied volatility (IV) fell to 51 percent for 1 week and 49 percent for 3 months. In options, downside skew rose gradually, but hedge demand did not increase sharply. Dealers' gamma positioning shifted in a direction that stabilises prices. Glassnode said bitcoin is in a redistribution phase rather than a clear trend, and range-bound trading could continue unless spot demand expands and loss supply is cleared.