If Bitcoin falls below $60,000, its recovery could be delayed until 2027, a possibility has been raised.

Cointelegraph, a blockchain media outlet, reported on March 28 that the deeper Bitcoin falls, the longer it takes to recover, according to an analysis.

Bitcoin has recently given up all of its March gains and is down 1.40 percent on a monthly chart basis. For the first quarter of 2026 as a whole, it fell 24.6 percent. The long-term trend suggests Bitcoin has entered a deep decline phase. The explanation says the downtrend is likely to persist until the end of 2026, with an additional price drop of about 40 percent expected.

If this scenario holds, Bitcoin's recovery would be pushed back to the second quarter of 2027. That means a price decline requires more time to recover. According to an Ecoinometrics model, the recovery period extends by about 80 days for every additional 10 percent in drawdown depth.

Bitcoin is currently down 48 percent, and it is estimated it would take about 300 days to recover from the $126,000 peak in October 2025. So far, 172 days have passed, and if the cycle low is confirmed at $60,000, about 125 to 130 days appear to remain. The cycle low has not yet been confirmed, and there is still the possibility of further declines in the coming weeks, it said.

The Bitcoin Composite Market Index, or BCMI, is an indicator combining market-to-realized value, or MVRV, net unrealized profit/loss, or NUPL, spent output profit ratio, or SOPR, and market sentiment, and it is currently at 0.27. That is higher than 0.15 or below, a level that has formed a cycle bottom each time since 2018. Because BCMI remains high, an additional price decline is needed for it to fall to about 0.15 in 2026. This means Bitcoin has entered a severe selling phase.

Willy Woo (윌리 우), a partner at exchange CMCC Crest, pointed out that the selling share of large investors has declined most aggressively since October 2024. He added that Bitcoin's price has fallen below an upward trend line and that the flow among major investors continues to disperse. He said liquidity is deteriorating in both the spot and futures markets and that current market conditions remain in a strong downtrend.

Woo also presented the possibility that a bottom could be confirmed in the fourth quarter of 2027, viewing the $40,000 to $45,000 range as a typical bear-market bottom from a cycle perspective. If Bitcoin falls to the $40,000 to $45,000 level, the drop would reach about 64 to 68 percent from the $126,000 peak, greatly extending the recovery period.

According to the Ecoinometrics model, if the decline exceeds 60 percent, the total recovery period is estimated to take about 440 days from the cycle peak. Therefore, the outlet reported that a recovery would likely only be possible after the second quarter of 2027.