With bitcoin (BTC) and XRP extending a weak run, a counterargument has emerged that they may not fall to the extreme lows the market expects.

On March 24, blockchain media outlet The Crypto Basic reported that the cryptocurrency market is under persistent downward pressure, sharply dampening investor sentiment. The Fear and Greed Index stands at 34, remaining in the “fear” zone, and a negative mood has continued for most of this year.

Price action is also sluggish. Bitcoin has fallen about 37 percent from its October 2025 peak to around $71,000. XRP has also plunged about 50 percent over the same period and is trading in the low $1 range. The total cryptocurrency market capitalisation has also shrunk to around $2.4 trillion, down about $1.45 trillion.

In this situation, some market participants expect further declines. A representative view is that bitcoin could drop to $53,000 and XRP to $0.73 to $0.78. This reflects the perception that the market has not yet reached a bottom.

But analyst Crypto Bull said such pessimism may be excessive. He analysed that markets tend to move against public expectations and that the current situation, with fear running to extremes, could instead be a signal of a rebound.

He stressed that the more fear spreads, the more likely it is that selling pressure has already been largely priced in. Given that both bitcoin and XRP have undergone major corrections, he said there may be limited room for further declines.

Still, the direction remains uncertain. If investor sentiment improves or selling pressure eases, a rebound could come faster than expected. But if downward pressure continues, the possibility of further declines to the lows presented by the market cannot be ruled out.

The prevailing assessment is that the market has entered a phase in which two scenarios are confronting each other: bottom formation amid extreme fear and continued further declines.

“If Bitcoin drops to $53,000 or below and #XRP to $0.73-$0.78 next, the vast majority expectations of what’s next would be correct. I don’t think markets work that way.”