[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] With bitcoin (BTC) moving around the $70,000 level, four major U.S. economic data releases are due this week, and volatility in the cryptocurrency market is expected to increase.
On March 23 (local time), blockchain media outlet BeInCrypto highlighted key economic events that could affect expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and appetite for risk assets.
First, the March flash manufacturing and services purchasing managers' index (PMI), due to be released, is an indicator that reflects U.S. economic activity early, with the services sector particularly important. If the result is stronger than expected, the timing of Fed rate cuts is more likely to be delayed, which could pressure risk assets including bitcoin. If the manufacturing PMI falls below 50, it could be read as a sign of economic contraction and may trigger defensive moves across stock markets and the broader crypto market.
Weekly initial jobless claims due on March 25 are also drawing market attention. As of March 4, the figure came in at 205,000, lower than expected, but 211,000 is forecast in this release. If jobless claims increase, the Fed is more likely to bring forward rate cuts, which could be a positive signal for bitcoin. If the number is lower than expected, the likelihood of rates staying high increases, which could weigh on the cryptocurrency market.
On March 26, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and inflation expectations will be released. If inflation expectations rise, the Fed is more likely to watch it closely and adjust its tightening policy. U.S. crude oil inventory data released the same day is also a variable. A large decline in inventories could lift oil prices and inflation worries, adding pressure to markets.
Bitcoin repeatedly moved up and down during March, trading between $62,000 and $76,000. The economic indicators due this week are likely to recalibrate expectations for Fed rate cuts and could determine the direction of bitcoin prices.
Attention should be paid to the impact of this week's U.S. economic data releases on the bitcoin market. Coupled with the possibility of changes in the Fed's rate policy, they are expected to act as factors that could shake investor sentiment.