A projection that bitcoin (BTC) could reach $1 million in the long term if it expands its share in the global store-of-value market has resurfaced, with market experts divided.

On March 15 local time, blockchain media outlet CoinDesk reported that Matt Hougan (매트 호건), chief investment officer at crypto asset manager Bitwise, said in a recent report that bitcoin’s long-term price rise depends on its share of the global store-of-value market, rather than short-term market cycles.

"$1 million may sound unrealistic, but it implies about a 14-fold rise from the current price," he said. "The key is how large a role bitcoin takes in the world’s wealth preservation market," he added.

Hougan analysed that the size of the global market, including traditional stores of value such as gold and government bonds, grew to about $40 trillion from about $2.5 trillion in 2004. Bitcoin currently accounts for about 4 percent of that market.

He forecast that if bitcoin secures about half of that market, it could reach $1 million within the next 10 years. He added that if the store-of-value market itself continues to expand, the market share bitcoin needs to reach that price could be lower.

A $1 million bitcoin is also a target repeatedly raised in the crypto industry. Eric Trump, son of U.S. President Donald Trump, recently reaffirmed such a projection, and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has said bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030.

Twitter founder Jack Dorsey has argued bitcoin could reach $1 million within the next five years, and Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has presented a projection that it could be possible by 2028. Investment firm Ark Invest predicted bitcoin could reach $3.8 million over the long term, and Bernstein has also presented a $1 million scenario for 2033.

Mati Greenspan (마티 그린스펀), founder of investment research firm Quantum Economics, said, "$1 million is a symbolic target that expresses the idea that bitcoin can become a store of value like gold." "More important than the exact price is what percentage of global wealth bitcoin can account for," he stressed.

Market analyst Jason Fernandez (제이슨 페르난데스) also interpreted the $1 million projection as a psychological milestone. "Round numbers are easy to communicate in the market and align with investor incentives," he said. "This target reflects a belief that bitcoin will ultimately hold an important position in the competition among store-of-value assets," he added.

He also pointed out that many investors make a 'static denominator error' by simply comparing bitcoin with the current size of the store-of-value market. If the market expands in the future, bitcoin’s potential value could be assessed as higher, he said.

Greenspan said geopolitical tensions could strengthen the store-of-value case for bitcoin. "In uncertain times, investors look for neutral stores of value, and bitcoin is increasingly being included in that category along with gold," he said.

Analysts, however, stress that such projections are not short-term price forecasts but adoption scenarios spanning decades. For bitcoin to reach that level, expanded institutional adoption and clearer regulation are needed, and it could take at least 10 years, they said.

Another analyst, Nima Beni (니마 베니), said weakening trust in the traditional financial system could accelerate price rises. "For bitcoin to reach $1 million, a situation where confidence in traditional safe assets is shaken could serve as a catalyst," he said, adding that a sovereign debt crisis or turmoil in the gold market could increase the likelihood.

Experts ultimately see bitcoin’s long-term value as being driven more by the pace of institutional adoption and the macroeconomic environment than by short-term market cycles.