[Digital Today AI Reporter] The likelihood of bitcoin breaking above $100,000 is becoming increasingly slim. Prediction-market data estimates the probability that BTC recovers $100,000 by the first half of 2026 at less than 10 percent.

On Jan. 23 local time, blockchain media outlet Cointelegraph cited prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi and reported that bitcoin is unlikely to break above $100,000 in the short term. As of Jan. 22, Polymarket put the chance of BTC topping $100,000 before Jan. 31 at 6 percent, while Kalshi projected 7 percent.

Bitcoin hit $97,900 on Jan. 14, 2026, but has since declined, making it difficult to recover $100,000. Kalshi traders see a 65 percent chance it breaks above $100,000 before June, but Polymarket assessed a 65 percent chance BTC falls to around $80,000 by mid-2026.

Kalshi betting markets also projected a 54 percent chance bitcoin falls to $70,000 this year, a 50 percent chance it drops to $65,000, and a 42 percent chance it declines to $60,000. The market is tilting increasingly bearish, and the possibility of bitcoin falling to $58,000 is also being raised.

Strategy is likely to hold bitcoin in 2026 as well, but the probability it sells before a move above $100,000 was rated at less than 26 percent. The chance it holds more than 800,000 BTC by Dec. 31, 2026 was put at 84 percent, and additional purchases are also being discussed. Strategy recently bought an additional 22,305 BTC for $2.23 billion, raising its holdings to 709,715 BTC.

The bitcoin market remains highly volatile, but the short-term chance of breaking above $100,000 appears low. Data from prediction markets is expected to serve as an important reference indicator for investors.