Some investors who think they missed the entry point after bitcoin’s sharp rise may instead miss the early phase of a new bull cycle, blockchain outlet U.Today reported on Monday.

Crypto market maker Wintermute said in a recent report that the current trend is not the end of the rally but a phase preparing for the next move.

Wintermute said strong U.S. jobs data recently weighed on broader financial markets, but cryptocurrencies showed more resilience than expected. Markets priced the probability of further Federal Reserve rate hikes at around 60 percent, while gold, Treasuries and technology stocks weakened. Bitcoin also slipped from $82,400 to below $80,000 at one point, but soon erased all of the drop and ended the week up 3.45 percent.

Wintermute pointed to mounting fatigue in the stock market as a backdrop to the move. It said investors are taking profits after a long-running artificial intelligence-related rally, and that the money is moving into bitcoin and ether. It said cryptocurrencies are rising not alongside stocks but amid stock weakness.

On calls for a correction, it stressed a structure different from previous cycles. Some in the market say prices are already high and investors should wait for a sharp drop, but Wintermute said this cycle is fundamentally different. About 340 days after the all-time high, bitcoin in the 2018 and 2022 crisis phases had already fallen more than 75 percent, but this time the maximum drawdown is about 50 percent, it said. Wintermute assessed that each cycle’s low is becoming progressively shallower.

It said institutional inflows are behind that shift. Major funds are no longer waiting for bitcoin to fall to arbitrary levels such as $20,000, and are instead buying aggressively much earlier through spot ETFs. Nearly $1 billion flowed into these funds over the past three weeks, and last Thursday saw the biggest inflow since January.

Wintermute also cited internal fund rotation within the market. It said the market has entered a “young cycle” stage, meaning money gradually moves from large cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin and ether into riskier assets. Uniswap’s UNI and Arbitrum’s ARB surged nearly 40 percent in a week, it said, and activity has also begun to pick up in AI-related areas ahead of major events in December, centered on Bittensor (TAO) and Render Token (RENDER).

The next turning point centers on two price levels. Wintermute said if bitcoin decisively breaks above $82,000, cash on the sidelines could enter the market late due to fear of missing out. It warned that if bitcoin falls below $72,000 and spot ETFs show large outflows, the bullish trend could be put on hold. Wintermute cited $72,000 as a key level where the bullish scenario would be invalidated.

The biggest variable this month is the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) to be released on Sept. 11. Wintermute said the data will test whether smart money continues to exit stocks and flow into cryptocurrencies, or whether selling pressure spreads across markets. As a result, it said not only the bitcoin price itself but also spot ETF fund flows are emerging as a key gauge for judging whether the current upswing can be sustained.