An analysis said the bitcoin market may move away from its existing four-year, halving-centred cycle to a Wall Street-style 6 to 8-year cycle.

Blockchain outlet CryptoSlate reported on Sept. 3 that bitcoin analyst Willy Woo (윌리 우) said bitcoin's rhythm could become closer to traditional finance's short-term debt cycle than to the halving, as institutional money and macro liquidity increasingly affect prices.

The point is not that the halving's influence is disappearing, but that it is weakening in relative terms. Woo noted that the April 2024 halving cut the block reward to 3.125 BTC and reduced annual new issuance to about 164,250 BTC. That is about 0.82 percent of the current circulating supply. In 2028, when the next halving is expected, annual issuance will fall again to about 82,125 BTC, or about 0.41 percent of the current supply.

In such a structure, the supply shock created by halvings becomes smaller over time, while the influence of Wall Street money on the market can grow. In fact, institutional holdings already far exceed miners' annual new supply. Bitcoin Treasuries data show 100 listed companies hold more than 1.2 million BTC, and bitcoin exchange-traded products worldwide manage more than 1.5 million bitcoin. Combined, the two exceed 2.7 million BTC.

That amount is more than 16 times the volume of bitcoin that miners newly bring to market in a year. After the 2028 halving, annual issuance will fall further, which could widen the gap even more. Woo drew a line, saying this comparison does not mean institutional holders determine prices. Still, he said it is clear that miners' supply shock has become much smaller compared with the amount of bitcoin accumulated on corporate balance sheets and inside regulated investment products.

As a result, major market turning points in the future may be difficult to explain using the halving clock alone. Woo argued that credit conditions, global liquidity and portfolio fund flows could become increasingly important in setting bitcoin's major highs and lows. Institutional money has begun to grow to a level comparable to bitcoin's "internal clock", he said.

Still, it is too early to say the existing four-year cycle has completely collapsed. Bitcoin's past four-year rhythm was closer to a tendency that emerged as halving, monetary policy and investor sentiment overlapped than to a mechanically repeating formula. Another point raised was that there are not many completed cycles, making it hard to define a fixed pattern.

Other market analyses also did not declare a complete abandonment of the existing framework. Galaxy Research said in June that the four-year cycle is still observed, but the amplitude is shrinking. 21Shares said in its annual review that the pattern has not broken but is changing. Fidelity Digital Assets said bitcoin's larger market capitalisation, broader institutional investor base and lower volatility could make future cycles different from past boom-and-bust phases.

Ultimately, Woo's 6 to 8-year cycle thesis is closer to an emerging frame than a confirmed alternative theory. Still, measurable changes are already under way. Annual mining issuance is shrinking to a small share of circulating supply, while millions of bitcoin are accumulating inside institutional investment vehicles. If this trend continues, the next major bitcoin phase may be influenced more heavily not only by halvings but also by credit conditions and liquidity variables similar to those in traditional financial markets.