[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] Bitcoin has rebounded strongly in recent weeks, but an assessment said it is too early to conclude the bear market is over.

On Sept. 3 (local time), blockchain outlet Bitcoin Magazine reported that Fidelity Digital Assets said Bitcoin is showing a pattern similar to past cycles, but a new bottom could still form again in November.

The key point is that the recent rise does not necessarily mean an immediate trend reversal. Bitcoin has been rebounding since mid-August. Its gains increased after the U.S. Treasury said it would more than double the size of its Treasury buybacks. The price has risen about 30 percent as of Aug. 30 to around $81,639.

Some in the market are also arguing that Bitcoin has already emerged from the bear market. Bitcoin previously hit a record high of $126,080 on Oct. 12 last year. Fidelity Digital Assets, however, said it is hard to judge whether the bottom has passed based only on a simple comparison with past cycles.

Chris Kuiper (크리스 쿠이퍼), vice president for research at Fidelity Digital Assets, said of recent moves, "Given Bitcoin's recent performance, the bottom may have already occurred in July." At the same time, he said, "It could fall again in November or later and form a new low." He also explained that Bitcoin cycles have historically not repeated on an exact four-year schedule, making it hard to use that as a basis for market timing.

Bitcoin in fact saw limited volatility for most of June and July and traded below $65,000. In August, the mood changed after the U.S. Treasury announcement. What the market calls a 'debasement trade' again drew attention, with bets on concerns about currency value dilution.

A factor seen as shaping the next direction was a U.S. Congress bill on crypto market structure. Kuiper said investors should watch the legislative process for the Clarity Act. Supporters of the bill argue it can "provide greater regulatory clarity to the U.S. digital asset ecosystem and support sustained innovation."

Political moves were also cited as a backdrop that fueled the recent rise. U.S. President Donald Trump, after meeting crypto industry officials at the White House in August, urged Congress to pass the related market structure bill. Trump described the draft as 'very, very strong.'

The bill aligns with industry calls for a clear framework on how regulators should handle Bitcoin, stablecoins and other cryptocurrencies. As a result, the vote scheduled for this month is expected to be a factor not only for Bitcoin's price path but also for gauging the direction of U.S. digital asset institutionalisation.