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Bitcoin short-term holders\' realized cap down 62 percent, nearing past bear market levels

Bitcoin short-term holders\' (STH) realized market capitalisation has fallen about 62 percent from its peak in October 2025. On-chain analyst Darkfost said the decline is nearing the 70 to 75 percent drops seen in past bear markets. The move suggests high-cost holdings are being cleared while new positions form at lower prices. Darkfost said more analysis is needed to judge whether the correction will extend or see another leg down.

Crypto

Bitcoin bear market end in sight as on-chain metrics signal final phase

An on-chain signal suggesting the bitcoin market may be entering the final stage of a bear market has been detected, an analysis said. The signal formed as the average purchase price of short-term holders fell below that of long-term holders, resembling patterns seen in the later part of past bear markets. Analyst Darkpost said the crossover does not confirm a price bottom. A bullish shift would require an upward crossover, he said.

Crypto

Bitcoin bottom signal lights up again as on-chain metrics send mixed messages

Bitcoin has re-entered a reversal zone similar to the 2022 bear-market bottom, an analysis said. Analyst Frank said a “typical Bitcoin bottom” is forming as the price moves toward $65,000, citing the 200-week simple moving average and related indicators, including a 9th decile zone. He also pointed to short-term holder SOPR turning positive as a bullish sign. CryptoQuant, however, said stronger bottoms often involve a deeper SOPR drop.