[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] Analysis suggests the market has entered a phase resembling the start of past bull runs as Bitcoin’s total supply profitability indicator falls below 50 percent. The metric alone cannot confirm a bottom, so attention is focused on whether Bitcoin has entered a full-fledged accumulation phase.

Cointelegraph reported on March 26 that Bitcoin’s total supply profitability stood at 60.6 percent on the day. The indicator had fallen to 50.8 percent on Feb. 5, its lowest level since Jan. 2, 2023. That means a significant share of total holdings is at breakeven or in loss territory.

Similar phases in the past have been interpreted as a precursor to strong rallies. In January 2023, when Bitcoin was priced at $16,682, supply profitability was around 51 percent. It later rose to $126,000 in 2025, up 655 percent. In March 2020, when supply profitability fell below 50 percent, Bitcoin traded around $6,500 and later surged to $69,000 in 2021.

Over the past 5 years, the 50 to 60 percent range for supply profitability has generally coincided with periods of market readjustment. With unrealised network-wide profits shrinking, it is interpreted as a phase in which incentives for additional selling in a bear market ease. The indicator is therefore seen less as pointing to a specific bottom and more as a signal of price levels where long-term accumulation takes place.

This cycle also shows patterns that differ from the past. Long-term holder net unrealised profit/loss (LTH-NUPL) is currently around 0.40, meaning long-term holders remain in profit. In the 2015, 2018 and 2022 bear markets, the indicator turned negative before a bottom formed, but it has not yet reached that stage this time.

This also aligns with changes in market structure. Companies and spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) currently hold 3,319,677 BTC, about 15.8 percent of circulating supply. These investors generally hold for longer periods and tend to be less sensitive to short-term price swings. As a result, analysis suggests that even if overall market profitability falls, it may not lead to heavy capitulation by long-term holders as in the past.

Selling pressure from short-term holders also appears to be easing. Crypto analyst Darkfost said that on March 25, short-term holder Bitcoin inflows into Binance fell to 25,000 BTC. That is a decline of more than 75 percent compared with about 100,000 BTC in early February, when selling pressure was strong. It is interpreted as meaning reactive selling by new investors has noticeably decreased.

Indicators suggesting the possibility of additional correction also remain. Crypto analytics firm GugaOnChain pointed to metrics such as a market value-to-realised value (MVRV) of 1 or below, NUPL of -0.2 or below, and a Puell Multiple around 0.35. It said those have appeared in the past when retail selling pressure increased and assets were undervalued. The firm said these indicators cannot predict an exact bottom but can be used as a reference zone to gauge long-term upside potential relative to downside risk.

The market is focusing on supply profitability re-entering past accumulation ranges. But with long-term holders’ profitability still high, some also argue that more indicators need to be checked to determine whether the current pattern will lead to a bull-market turn as in the past.

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