[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee] Bitcoin is sending a series of bullish signals in on-chain indicators as it trades above $81,000.

On May 14 (local time), blockchain media outlet Cryptopolitan reported that bitcoin has risen 37 percent from its April low, short-term holder loss pressure has disappeared, and a long-term cycle indicator also flashed a bullish signal for the first time since 2023.

The key is easing short-term selling pressure. On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. said bitcoin short-term holder (STH) loss pressure fell to 0 on May 8 and stayed at the same level for 5 consecutive days.

The indicator tracks unrealised losses of investors who have held for less than 155 days. The figure rose to 27.9 percent on Feb. 24. It also stayed in the 18 to 22 percent range in late March and early April, when bitcoin moved between $66,000 and $77,000.

Data showed that over the same period, the share of bitcoin held by the short-term holder group also fell from above 28 percent to 22.2 percent, the lowest level in the past 3 months. It means there are fewer short-term trading-oriented investors left in the market and the current loss zone has also disappeared, lowering the likelihood of fear-driven selling.

The market is also watching that prices did not collapse despite continued profit-taking. CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo Aleman pointed out that for 9 consecutive days since May 1, investors sold bitcoin at prices above their purchase prices. He said the adjusted spent output profit ratio, or aSOPR, stayed above 1.0 throughout the period. Aleman assessed that profit-taking for about a day may not mean much, but 9 straight days signals there is enough buying interest in the market to absorb profit-taking supply.

In fact, aSOPR holding above 1.0 means profit-taking supply did not lead to a sharp price drop. Another CryptoQuant analyst, CW8900, said bitcoin's bull and bear market cycle indicator flashed an early bullish signal for the first time since early 2023.

Still, it is not all optimism. A CryptoQuant report released on May 13 pointed out that bitcoin's 200-day moving average is about $82,400, the same level as a zone that capped the market top in March 2022. The Coinbase bitcoin price premium has also turned negative since late April and remains there. That is read as a sign that U.S. institutional demand has not yet confirmed this rebound, leaving caution that the current move could be temporary.

The altcoin market is showing a more uncertain trend than bitcoin. Some analysts said interest in altcoin trading has started to exceed the long-term average. The 30-day moving average of altcoin trading volume has in fact surpassed the 365-day average. Bitcoin leading market trading since mid-April has also been cited as a condition, based on past cases, for altcoins to regain strength against bitcoin.

However, 10x Research offered a different interpretation. In a post on X (formerly Twitter) on May 14, it said altcoin momentum has stopped near the 30-day moving average without a clear expansion above it, and trading volume is shrinking again. It assessed BNB as a relatively strong asset, citing Grayscale's application for an exchange-traded fund (ETF) and inclusion in the Coinbase roadmap, but warned that if overall altcoin momentum falls below the 30-day moving average it could be a signal to close long positions.

As a result, the market's focus is shifting to whether bitcoin can continue to settle in the $81,000 range and confirm institutional demand, and whether a recovery in altcoin trading will translate into an actual uptrend. On-chain indicators are making bitcoin's rebound signals clearer, but altcoins need both volume and trend to revive to call it a shift to a bullish turn.

Altcoin momentum is fading at the first hurdle. BTC still dominates. Trading volumes are declining again. Altcoin impulse is stalling at the 30-day MA, not breaking above it. Drop below = exit longs. Best setups right now: ↗ BNB — Grayscale ETF filing, Coinbase roadmap,… pic.twitter.com/24wOCLSoqA