Bitcoin short-term holders have been unable to exit an unrealised loss zone for eight months, data showed. An analysis says short-term investor sentiment remains subdued as the market price has failed to recover key purchase levels.

On June 24, blockchain media outlet CoinPost reported that on-chain analyst Darkfost, citing CryptoQuant data, said the average purchase price of Bitcoin short-term holders (STH) is about $74,800 and the current market price has been below that level for about eight months.

Short-term holders refer to investors who bought or moved Bitcoin within the past 155 days. They are generally classified as an investor group that reacts sensitively to price fluctuations and are used as a key indicator of short-term market sentiment. Their average unrealised loss is estimated at about 14.4%.

The scale of losses has eased from earlier levels. Darkfost explained that recent conditions have improved considerably given that the short-term holders' loss rate was above 34% in early February this year.

In this cycle, the profit-and-loss structure of short-term holders has also differed from the past. During the Bitcoin bull market in March 2024, their average unrealised profit widened to 47%, but when Bitcoin renewed its all-time high in October 2025, unrealised profit stayed around 11%. Darkfost assessed it as interesting that short-term holders' profit-and-loss conditions changed sharply even at the same Bitcoin price range.

The decline in the average purchase price is also drawing attention. The average cost basis for short-term holders has fallen from around $95,700 to $74,800. Darkfost analysed that the average fell as more investors made additional purchases during the downturn. This is interpreted as a sign that buy-the-dip demand continued to flow in even as prices fell.

But the problem in the current market is that this price level is acting as resistance rather than support. Darkfost assessed that recovering the short-term holders' average cost basis could be the first signal confirming a shift in market direction. He said selling pressure has appeared whenever the market reaches that zone so far.

On May 10, short-term holders briefly moved into an unrealised profit zone of 0.5%, but the move did not last. Prices soon retreated again and short-term holders returned to loss territory. As a result, an assessment says a recovery to around $74,800 must come first to judge whether short-term momentum is turning.

This pattern shows that even if Bitcoin has rebounded recently, the perceived returns of short-term buying have not yet recovered. It also suggests that even if there are investors who lowered their cost basis during the downturn, selling pressure could re-emerge if the price fails to settle above the average cost basis.

The market's next focus is clear. Whether the short-term holders' average cost basis continues to remain as resistance or shifts into a recovery zone is emerging as a variable that will split the short-term trend. As Darkfost noted, whether the market can reclaim this level is expected to become the baseline for judging Bitcoin's short-term trend.