More than half of bitcoin in circulation is now being held at a loss, an analysis said, suggesting the cycle’s bottom may be near. Digital asset broker K33 said the metric has often been used as a late-stage bear-market signal, with bottoms typically forming within weeks, though 2014 was an exception. K33 also warned this cycle could differ due to major sellers such as spot bitcoin ETF holders, as fund flows remain mixed.

Long-term holders now control 79 percent of bitcoin in circulation, an on-chain signal K33 said resembles patterns seen near major bear market bottoms. The firm pointed to a sharp drop in movements of older coins and easing outflows from spot bitcoin ETFs. It also said about 50 percent of supply was in loss territory last week, a level historically seen only shortly before bear market lows, though further declines often occur before rebounds.