As Bitcoin continues a prolonged stretch of negative funding rates, an analysis says the likelihood of an upside break has increased as both price and open interest rise.

The Block Crypto reported on Tuesday that research and brokerage firm K33 said in a recent report that the current market structure resembles past Bitcoin bottoming phases.

The key is positioning in the derivatives market. K33 said Bitcoin's 30-day average derivatives funding rate has been negative for 46 straight days. That matches the length of the negative-funding stretch seen near the bear-market low in late 2022. A negative funding rate means demand for short positions is stronger than demand for long positions across the market.

This time, however, price action is also shifting. Attention is on a combination in which Bitcoin's price rises while open interest increases, and the daily, 7-day and 30-day average funding rates remain negative. Vetle Lunde (베틀레 룬데), K33's head of research, said this pattern has typically appeared repeatedly near the bottom of range-bound phases.

Lunde said, "Recent funding compression and the unusually extended negative stretch suggest Bitcoin is increasingly likely to break out of the 68-day range and attempt a higher peak." That means if the price holds up or rises while bearish bets build, cascading short liquidations could trigger a sharp short-term jump.

K33 also said positioning among crypto-native investors fits these conditions. Lunde said, "Current market positioning matches these conditions," adding, "This is why we have continued to emphasize the funding-rate range over the past month, and it underpins our bullish view on Bitcoin."

Compared with past cases, the current stretch of negative funding is unusually long. By K33's analysis, the only periods with longer consecutive negatives in the 30-day average funding rate were 63 days from March to May 2020 and 49 days from June to August 2021. The current 46-day run follows those.

Price action was also cited as support for the analysis. Bitcoin has risen 3 percent over the past week and is up 23 percent since a low of about $60,000 on Feb. 6. It is still about 41 percent below the record high of about $126,000 set on Oct. 6, 2025.