Bitcoin is showing on-chain flows similar to past bear-market low zones.

On July 17, blockchain outlet Cointelegraph reported that the share of bitcoin supply held at a loss exceeded 50 percent on June 5, and that the bottom-forming phase in this cycle is stretching as 42 days have passed since then.

Crypto research firm K33 Research said in its first-half closing report that more than half of the current bitcoin supply is being held at a loss. The indicator is a signal often seen in bear markets and has been used as a yardstick to gauge the time remaining until a macro bottom in BTC/USD.

K33 data showed that in past cases the bitcoin bottom came within as long as 101 days after the share held at a loss exceeded 50 percent. The shortest period was 13 days in 2022. In the 2018 bear market, the low formed after 23 days, while in 2014 it fell for another 101 days after crossing 50 percent.

This year, as 42 days have passed since June 5, the period has become the second-longest case on record. K33 said returns over the following year were generally very resilient. It did not pin down the timing of a bottom, but said the current phase resembles the late stage of a bear market when compared with past cycles.

CryptoQuant, an on-chain analytics platform, also showed a similar signal. Earlier this month, CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler Jr (악셀 애들러 주니어) estimated there were about two months left before the share held at a loss reaches bear-market low levels.

Still, as of July 17, CryptoQuant data put the share of supply held at a loss at 46 percent. The difference from K33's figure appears to reflect a gap in reference timing or calculation method, but both indicators were seen as pointing to a late-stage bear-market phase.

The market still does not see a bitcoin bottom as confirmed. But as the share held at a loss and the RCV model have both fallen to levels similar to past low zones, whether a bottom forms in the coming weeks to months is emerging as a key point to watch. With the number of days since the June 5 crossing of 50 percent nearing the upper end of past cases, the outlet said attention is on how closely on-chain indicators will align with actual price moves.