Vetle Lunde (베틀 룬데) of Swedish digital asset brokerage and research firm K33 said in a recent report that bitcoin (BTC) has fallen about 40 percent from a peak hit in October last year, but it is unlikely conditions will fully replicate past bear markets.

CoinPost reported on Feb. 5 that some say the current correction resembles the severe bear markets of 2018 and 2022, but Lunde said the same cycle would not be repeated as it was. He has previously said that the "four-year cycle is over" as of October last year. He acknowledged that recent price moves resemble periods of sharp past crashes, but stressed that the market environment itself has fundamentally changed.

Lunde cited increased participation by institutional investors, capital inflows through regulated financial products and an easing financial environment. He said it was unlikely the current market would move into the same kind of collapse phase seen in the past. He added that concerns about a cycle repeating could restrain investor behaviour and risk becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.

He said long-term holders are reducing positions in part to take profits, while hesitating to bring in new capital, and that selling pressure is increasing. He added that while this resembles patterns seen in past downswings, this time differs because of structural positives such as billions of dollars of inflows via spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, improved access for financial advisers and banks expanding into crypto services.

Even so, Lunde drew a line under the risk of a year-long drop of as much as 80 percent seen in past cycles, saying, "This time is different." He cited an easing financial environment and said structural issues in GBTC that worsened the 2022 bear market, as well as forced deleveraging events such as Luna, Three Arrows Capital, BlockFi, Genesis and FTX, do not exist now.

Lunde said several indicators suggesting a market bottom are gradually emerging. On Feb. 2, spot bitcoin trading volume exceeded $80 billion during a 2025 low test phase, an unusual level. In derivatives markets, about $1.8 billion in long positions were liquidated, and both open interest and funding rates fell into extreme negative territory. Lunde said this combination has often coincided with past market turning points.

On the technical side, Lunde pointed to around $74,000 as a key support level. He warned that if it breaks, declines could accelerate to $69,000, the November 2021 high, and further to $58,000, where the 200-week moving average sits. He said, "With bitcoin returns nearly stagnant over the past two years, long-term holders have little incentive to rush to sell." He added, "If the current support breaks, I will reconsider my stance, but I do not expect a crash scenario like 2018 or 2022."

Meanwhile, Matt Hougan (맷 호건), chief investment officer at crypto asset manager Bitwise, said the crypto market entered a full-fledged "winter phase" from January 2025. He said a pattern has repeatedly formed in which the market bottoms about 13 months after a peak based on past price moves, and he analysed that it is possible the market is entering the final stage of the crypto winter.