Bitcoin remains below a key resistance level in the $80,000 range, while markets again price in the possibility of a September rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Cointelegraph reported on Aug. 31, local time, that as expectations for Fed policy have turned more hawkish since the Jackson Hole symposium, the bitcoin market is again being heavily influenced by macro factors.

Attention is focused on U.S. employment indicators ahead of the September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Private-sector employment data, initial jobless claims and August nonfarm payrolls are due to be released one after another this week. Markets expect August job gains of 50,000. That compares with a decline of 23,000 in June.

The Fed's new chair, Kevin Warsh (케빈 워시), did not set out the policy direction in detail in his Jackson Hole speech but said the existing pre-emptive guidance had "already served its purpose". On inflation, he also said July consumer price index (CPI) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data were not sufficient.

After those remarks, expectations for a rate hike rose again. CME Group's FedWatch tool showed the probability of a 0.25 percentage point increase at the September FOMC meeting rising to nearly 60 percent from 41.4 percent the prior week.

Still, signs of a cooling labour market remain a factor that could reduce the intensity of tightening. Research firm The Kobeissi Letter said, "All eyes are on the labour market," and described these releases as the last key employment data ahead of the September rate decision. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed employment figures for the 12 months through March this year were revised down by 79,000.

Along with macro factors, a sharp rise in oil prices is also adding to market volatility. After the resumption of U.S. air strikes on Iran, Brent crude rose back above $90 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed above $85. European stocks came under pressure, and higher energy prices again fuelled inflation concerns.

Bitcoin is also at a technically important juncture. In the weekly close, it briefly fell below the 50-week exponential moving average of $77,269 but quickly recovered. It has yet to reclaim on a weekly basis the 50-week simple moving average of $80,307, which Glassnode co-founder Rafael Schultze-Kraft (라파엘 슐체-크라프트) has cited as a key benchmark.

Overhead resistance also remains. Bitcoin has risen about 25 percent in August but has not broken through the key resistance level formed above $80,000. Exchange order books show thick sell orders in the $81,000 to $86,000 range. CryptoQuant said wallets holding more than 100 BTC accumulated about 60,000 BTC from Aug. 1 to 30, while wallets holding 1 to 100 BTC and those holding less than 1 BTC were net sellers of about 33,000 BTC and 14,000 BTC, respectively.

It is uncertain whether this trend will continue. CryptoQuant said if large holders begin to sell the amounts they have recently accumulated back below $80,000, interpretations of the current accumulation trend would need to be revisited. It said the direction of the bitcoin market this week is likely to be determined by the Fed's rate path, U.S. jobs data, whether it breaks through resistance in the $80,000 range, and supply-demand flows among large holders.

BREAKING: Total nonfarm payrolls were revised down by another -79,000 jobs for the 12 months ending March 31st, 2026, in the BLS's preliminary benchmark revision. This follows last year's record -911,000 revision and marks the 4th consecutive annual downward adjustment, matching… pic.twitter.com/IKjBjbC3tT