XRP surged 15 percent in a day and broke above a long-term downward trendline that has capped prices since July 2025.

The Crypto Basic, a blockchain outlet, reported on Aug. 20 that XRP rebounded after sliding to $0.98 last week and rose to around $1.26.

The rebound has shifted market focus from the short-term jump itself to the possibility of a trend change. Crypto analyst Bird assessed that XRP has officially broken above the bearish trendline that has continued since July 2025. That suggests the move is snapping a downward run that has lasted for more than a year.

The weekly chart also showed a change. XRP moved above a descending resistance line that started near the 2025 peak and extended into 2026. The market is also watching that the price, which had slipped below $1 until recently, was quickly recovered.

Daily technical indicators also improved. Analyst ChartNerd noted that XRP closed the daily session at $1.10, marking the first close above the daily 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) after failing to clear it for more than 3 months. The indicator has served as a key resistance level during a prolonged decline. It is used as a gauge of whether buyers are regaining short-term control.

In that context, ChartNerd asked, "Which comes first: $1.50 XRP or $1.00 XRP?" He meant the market is at a point that will determine whether the rebound marks the start of a trend reversal or a temporary recovery that tests the area around $1 again.

A bullish view also emerged. Analyst Michael XBT has urged holders not to sell since XRP fell below $1 last week, and he viewed the recent rebound as supporting his outlook again. He said a 7-year pennant pattern is approaching a breakout zone, arguing that history will repeat itself.

Still, it is hard to say the long-term downtrend has ended based on a short-term surge alone. Despite the past 24 hours, XRP is still down over the past 90 days. As a result, the market is viewing the $1.10 to $1.15 range as a key price zone. If XRP holds above the trendline it broke and continues to recover the 50-day EMA, expectations for an end to the long decline could grow.

If it fails to hold the breakout, the move could again be interpreted as a false breakout. In that case, concerns about a retest of the $1 level could rise again.

Bitcoin's moves are also a variable. Bitcoin is currently above $73,000, and if those market conditions persist, they could also support XRP's attempts to extend gains.

The key point in this rally is not the sharp rise itself but that a recovery of both the long-term downward trendline and the 50-day EMA was observed at the same time. Whether XRP can turn that zone into a real support level has emerged as a benchmark that could shape the next move.

XRP has officially broken out of the bear market trendline that’s held since July 2025. Over a year of grinding downwards. The trend has finally broken. I told you it would happen pic.twitter.com/eb349OqoIN