XRP is down 45 percent from the start of the year, raising both the risk of short-term declines and expectations of a medium- to long-term rebound.

On Aug. 13 local time, blockchain media outlet The Crypto Basic reported that market analyst CryptoinsightUK reviewed XRP’s recent price action by dividing it into bullish factors, bearish factors and relative weakness zones.

He cited liquidity and leverage zones as near-term downside risks. A lower-timeframe liquidity heatmap shows a liquidation zone forming about 7 percent below the current price, and if XRP slides to around $0.89, long positions worth about $157 million could be liquidated, he said.

On a daily basis, he also presented a wider downside range of 15 percent to 22 to 23 percent. CryptoinsightUK viewed the 15 percent decline scenario as more likely, which would put the price at about $0.85.

He also cited the price structure as a bearish factor. XRP continues to make progressively lower highs and lower lows, and the first key level is around $0.93. That level previously acted as resistance. Additional support levels mentioned were $0.75 and $0.66. Still, CryptoinsightUK presented $0.88 to $0.925 as his preferred lower target, and said a liquidity imbalance could push the price below the actual liquidation zone.

In terms of performance, he also mentioned the possibility of weakness versus Ethereum and Bitcoin. He said XRP could fall about 13 percent further to the first major support level against Ethereum, and a deeper correction could mean a 49 percent drop. Against Bitcoin, XRP could also fall about 26 percent to a past order block, and if it slips to the 0.00001 level, losses versus Bitcoin could be about 37 percent.

XRP’s market share was also cited as a burden. CryptoinsightUK said the chart may have formed a bullish flag or a falling wedge box after a Wyckoff accumulation pattern, but recently broke below that structure. He also forecast that if a deeper correction continues, dominance could fall to 1.6 percent.

In supply and demand indicators, rising open interest was cited as a variable. XRP open interest has risen by about $400 million to $500 million from a recent low. Funding rates indicate whether investors are leaning more toward long or short positions, and when prices swing sharply they increase the likelihood of forced buying or forced selling.

By contrast, overhead liquidity and technical indicators were cited as grounds for a rebound. It would take at least a 197 percent rise to reach the nearest major overhead liquidity zone, and up to a 330 percent rise to reach other liquidity targets, the analysis said. Another bullish factor cited was that if XRP rises to $1.48, leveraged short positions worth about $727 million could be liquidated.

For technical indicators, he cited the weekly relative strength index (RSI) and the monthly RSI. The weekly RSI entered the second most oversold zone in XRP’s history. CryptoinsightUK said the previous instance was followed by a rise of about 1,085 percent, and that if the same move repeats, XRP could reach about $11. The monthly RSI also fell to 40, below the past major low zone of 44 to 47.5, marking an all-time low.

He also cited Elliott wave and Fibonacci analysis as support for a long-term bullish scenario. CryptoinsightUK said the next major wave would require a rise of at least 600 percent, and presented a 1,000 percent rise as a reference point under a conservative standard. He also mentioned the possibility that XRP could retest prior peaks on Bitcoin, Ethereum and dominance measures over the long term, and said that if the broader setup unfolds, the Fibonacci-based target is around $14.

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