[Digital Today reporter Chi-gyu Hwang] Shares of listed companies that hold large amounts of bitcoin are increasingly trading below the net asset value (NAV) of their bitcoin holdings.

Crypto macro analyst Alex Kruger estimated that at least 37 of the top 100 listed companies holding bitcoin, about 40% overall, are currently in such “discounted trading” conditions.

Kruger said the structure is similar to the period just before the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) premium collapsed in 2020. GBTC maintained a premium above NAV for a long time, but the premium collapsed sharply as market demand fell and new investment inflows slowed, leading to large asset losses.

These companies are now in a position where their share prices have fallen below NAV, making additional fundraising effectively impossible without diluting gains. This is seen as exposing limits to the scalability of a “financial strategy” built around accumulating bitcoin. MicroStrategy, a representative bitcoin treasury company, is trading at a share price about 17% below the value of its bitcoin holdings.

The industry sees a high likelihood that these structural limits will persist for the time being, and it is also raising the possibility of an industry reshuffle centred on small and mid-sized listed firms, including mergers and acquisitions.