[DigitalToday reporter Hyunwoo Choo] An analysis says bitcoin could confirm a bearish-market bottom if it ends August with a monthly close above $63,000. Cointelegraph reported on Aug. 3 that 10x Research said holding this level could be a technical reversal signal.

Markus Thielen (마르쿠스 틸렌), founder of 10x Research, said bitcoin closed July below the baseline used to confirm a bottom. At the time the analysis was written, the price was $63,140. That means a reversal signal could emerge even with only a small rise from the July close.

10x Research said several of its cycle indicators could turn bullish if bitcoin posts a monthly close around $63,000. It is currently maintaining a preference for long positions. It plans to shift to neutral if the price falls below key support and moving averages.

The macro environment is a variable. As its base case, 10x Research expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged. But it said if U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rise further, the likelihood of a September rate hike could increase. It also cited the Iran conflict as a risk factor that is difficult to predict.

Supply-demand pressure also remains. 10x Research estimated that some mining companies shifting their businesses to artificial intelligence could create selling pressure of about 100,000 BTC. It also mentioned the possibility of additional supply due to bitcoin treasury companies reducing positions. Still, it said the bigger risk factor for the market is macroeconomic conditions.

Other analysis has also raised the possibility that bitcoin has bottomed. Grayscale Research head Zack Pandl (잭 팬들) said in a July 22 report that bitcoin may have reached a bottom earlier than the traditional four-year cycle. He said macroeconomic conditions, including Fed policy, remain a key variable for the price and could also determine when the actual bottom occurs.

K33 said in early July that more than half of bitcoin supply had moved into loss territory. K33 viewed this as another signal that a market bottom was nearing. In 2017 and 2018, and in 2022, bitcoin formed a bottom within 13 to 31 days after reaching the same threshold.

Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten (코리 클립스텐) said in a June interview that long-term holders' balances reaching a record 14.7 million BTC was also a sign bitcoin was nearing a bottom.