Bitcoin has entered a zone where it is being tested for confirmation of a short-term reversal, with attention on whether it can break above $67,200.
On Aug. 2 local time, blockchain outlet U.Today reported that bitcoin is forming the right shoulder of a traditional inverse head-and-shoulders pattern near $63,382.
The key in this stretch is not the rebound itself but whether it can break above $67,200, cited as the neckline. Bitcoin suffered a steep fall after peaking above $81,000 on May and has recently shown signs of finding a bottom near $57,000. Markets are watching whether this rebound attempt can lead to an actual trend reversal.
Technical chart analyst Axel Kibar viewed the setup as virtually the only remaining bullish argument for bulls in early August. Bitcoin has not confirmed a shift to an uptrend yet. If buying fails to push it strongly up to $67,200, the pattern itself could be invalidated.
By contrast, ethereum is seen as being a step ahead in the same zone. On the ETH/BTC pair, a similar reversal-bottom pattern has already broken higher, and ethereum is firming an uptrend while moving toward the technical target of 0.0312. Axel Kibar's analysis said this shows large funds are currently staying in ethereum ahead of bitcoin, the market's representative asset.
That shift in funds is weighing on bitcoin. As liquidity moves toward ethereum, trading volume needed for bitcoin to rebound quickly is shrinking. It means that even if bitcoin is forming a reversal shape on the chart, the force required for an actual breakout has not yet been sufficiently confirmed.
Ethereum's dollar-denominated moves are also in focus. Ethereum is in a retest zone, testing again after breaking above $1,875. If that support holds, a path toward $2,163 could open. With ethereum structurally showing bullish signals first, the market's next point of interest is whether bitcoin can follow.
For bitcoin holders, the next few days are important. If bitcoin quickly moves above $67,200 and confirms the classic reversal pattern, sentiment could change. But if there is no attempt to break the neckline, bears could regain control. In the context presented by Axel Kibar, if bitcoin fails to attack the neckline within days, the possibility opens for retests of support at $60,000 and $58,000.
Ultimately, the early-August turning point for bitcoin's price is not a simple rebound but whether it can break above $67,200. While ethereum has already shown a move higher, bitcoin remains in a stage that still requires confirmation, and relative strength between the two assets is expected to act as a key market variable for the time being.
This is the only positive news I have for $BTCUSD. If it can quickly rally to 67.2K we will have a well-defined H&S bottom reversal in the short-term. pic.twitter.com/lkr3DUyhyY