A U.S. Senate crypto market structure bill known as the CLARITY bill has faced public opposition from Democrats, making its passage this year uncertain. Even Democratic lawmakers seen as pro-crypto have joined the opposition camp, emerging as the biggest variable in handling the bill.

Cryptopolitan, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Wednesday that seven Democratic senators issued a joint statement criticising the current CLARITY bill for failing to sufficiently address key issues such as ethics for elected officials, consumer protection, illicit finance prevention, conflicts of interest and market integrity.

The joint statement was signed by Angela Alsobrooks (앤절라 앨소브룩스), Cory Booker (코리 부커), Catherine Cortez Masto (캐서린 코르테즈 매스토), Ruben Gallego (루벤 가예고), John Hickenlooper (존 히켄루퍼), Mark Warner (마크 워너) and Raphael Warnock (라파엘 워녹). In response, Republicans released a revised draft the same day reflecting a 2029 sunset provision for the ethics clause, stablecoin-related provisions, a bill clarifying blockchain regulation and law enforcement-related 내용.

The sticking point is the ethics provision for public officials. Democrats argue that the clause applies only temporarily and that enforcement authority is concentrated in the Justice Department, limiting its effectiveness. Gallego, in particular, described a recently disclosed Trump-related ethics provision as "very weak," and Alsobrooks previously criticised a proposal for sole Justice Department enforcement during earlier negotiations as "not a serious proposal."

The opposition has drawn attention because even pro-crypto Democratic senators have shifted their stance. Gallego and Alsobrooks were among Democrats who voted in favour when the Senate Banking Committee sent the bill to the full Senate in May. With them now opposed, Republicans must secure additional Democratic support to reach the 60 votes needed for passage.

Democrats also say the bill does not adequately reflect conflict-of-interest concerns linked to President Donald Trump (도널드 트럼프)'s crypto business. Trump is known to have earned about $1.4 billion from crypto-related businesses, and about $636 million of that was reported to be tied to his memecoin.

Republicans say they will keep pushing to advance the bill. Senate Republican leader John Thune (존 튠)'s side said it plans to proceed with voting steps within days. If the bill is not passed before the August congressional recess that begins in about 2 weeks, deliberations are likely to spill into 2027.

Outside Congress, some also raised the possibility that the bill could fail. Former U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission chairman J. Christopher Giancarlo said the CLARITY bill has less than a 50 percent chance of passing, while also assessing that market innovation could continue even with regulatory frameworks being prepared by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the CFTC.

In the United States, interpretive guidance prepared by the SEC and CFTC is currently applied as the main regulatory standard. The SEC is preparing to introduce "Regulation Crypto," and the CFTC is also expanding its supervisory authority over digital assets.

Within the Republican Party, some have argued the revised ethics clause is sufficient. Senator Cynthia Lummis (신시아 루미스) voiced public support for the new agreement, stressing that it includes a ban on issuing and sponsoring digital assets for profit by all federal officials, including the president.

Markets also view the bill's prospects as low. On prediction market Polymarket, the contract that the CLARITY bill will be signed into law in 2026 stood at 39 percent as of Tuesday. That marked a sharp fall from above 75 percent in February.

With that backdrop, Senate deliberations are likely to split again depending on how the ethics clause is revised. Disputes over conflicts of interest for public officials and the enforcement structure, rather than the bill's overall direction, have become the variable that will determine whether it passes this year.