Shiba Inu may be increasingly likely to fail to keep its typically relatively solid July performance this year.

According to blockchain media outlet U.Today on July 19 local time, Shiba Inu remains in a weak range even with 12 days left before the monthly candle closes, putting a long-running July return pattern to the test.

The key is whether July seasonality holds in practice. Based on CryptoRank figures, SHIB’s median July return is at least 3.88 percent. Over the past 4 years, it ended July higher 3 times, in 2025, 2023 and 2022. That period functioned as a section in which it partially recovered spring losses. This July, however, it has so far posted a local decline of 1.29 percent, moving differently from those statistics.

The annual trend is also not good. SHIB fell 29.5 percent in the second quarter of 2026 and is currently trading in a narrow range around $0.0000041. It has also slipped out of the top 30 by market capitalisation, a point that shows a bearish mood.

On the supply-and-demand side, a tug of war is unfolding at the same time among burns and supply, and between whales and long-term holders. The SHIB community burned 110 million tokens in a single day in early July and 152 million over a week. But with total supply at about 589 trillion tokens, it has failed to translate into an effect the market can feel.

By contrast, moves by large holders are putting more direct pressure on prices. In recent weeks, more than 1 trillion SHIB has moved to exchanges. This can be read as an increase in supply that could be sold. On-chain indicators, meanwhile, showed long-term holders used the decline to move 148.7 billion SHIB to cold wallets.

Technical indicators have not completely ruled out a rebound. The relative strength index (RSI) has fallen to around 39, a level that previously coincided with local rebounds in February and April.

The key is whether it can defend major price levels over the remaining 12 days. SHIB needs to hold support at $0.00000412 and break through resistance at $0.0000045. If it fails to clear that range, it could be taken as a signal that Shiba Inu’s long-running July seasonality is no longer working.

This trend shows Shiba Inu’s price is reacting more sensitively to actual circulating supply and exchange inflows than to the sheer scale of burns. The remaining 12 days are becoming a test of which way community expectations and market supply and demand tilt.