An analysis says XRP’s monthly relative strength index (RSI) is showing early signs of turning into an uptrend after a long bearish phase.

On July 6 (local time), blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that market analyst Egrag Crypto sees XRP’s recent monthly RSI move as potentially the start of a distribution phase targeting higher levels, rather than a short-term rebound.

The key point is that XRP’s monthly RSI briefly fell below a support zone that had aligned with major past bottoms, then rebounded. Egrag Crypto noted that XRP’s monthly RSI fell to 40.59 in June, entering the 40 region for the first time. He did not view the break below that zone as an immediate bearish signal. He said it could be a temporary dip to shake out weak participants and called it a “correction phase.”

He said that in past cycles, the monthly RSI repeatedly followed a pattern of testing a support zone around 43.66 three times, forming a bottom and then returning to an upward move. From December 2019 to June 2020, it formed a 1-2-3 bottom structure through 44.25, 43.75 and 44.01. A similar move appeared in 2022, when it posted 43.90 in June, 43.95 in August and 44.42 in December.

This time, the drop was deeper. Even so, the monthly RSI has rebounded to 42.5 after touching the 40 region, and Egrag Crypto interpreted this as a sign that momentum is starting to turn positive again. He said the AMD model, an accumulation-correction-distribution structure mainly applied to price analysis, can in this case also be applied to the monthly oscillator.

He said he expected the area near the historical support zone to be the accumulation phase, but in practice the RSI fell below it and a correction phase appeared first. He judged that a decisive breakout to the upside could follow.

He also presented key levels to confirm that view. He said regaining 43.66 could be the first sign of improving momentum, and moving above 46.50 would further strengthen a bullish scenario. Ultimately, he said, the most important confirmation that XRP’s macro momentum has turned higher would be a monthly close above 50.

An upward move in the RSI on higher time frames such as the monthly chart is seen as an indicator that upside strength is returning to the market. That could create bullish implications for XRP’s price. However, the current analysis focuses on oscillator changes rather than price itself, so whether an actual trend reversal occurs is expected to be confirmed by regaining the suggested resistance zones and by the monthly closing level.

#XRP - Monthly Oscillator Manipulation Is Ending : This is not just a normal RSI/oscillator bounce. This is a macro momentum story. 1️⃣ The 40 Level Was Touched: The oscillator dropped into the 40 region, which is a major historical weakness zone on the monthly time frame… pic.twitter.com/1sUztkLyNR