[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee] A scenario has been presented in which XRP could reach as high as $35.43 by 2030.

The Crypto Basic, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Sunday that the figures are based on calculations that assume a tokenised securities market of $5.5 trillion projected by Citigroup becomes reality and that the XRP Ledger (XRPL) maintains its current market share.

The discussion drew attention again in an interview between Ashish Birla (아시시 비를라), chief executive officer of XRP-related financial firm Evernode, and Roger Bayston (로저 베이스턴), head of digital assets at Franklin Templeton.

Birla referred to a Citigroup report released in early June and asked whether a projection that the blockchain-based tokenised securities market could reach $5.5 trillion in 2030 was excessive. Bayston said the estimate could instead be low, adding that even $5.5 trillion is only a small portion compared with the overall size of global capital markets.

Bayston said the financial system is being gradually rebuilt and that blockchain is serving as a more efficient foundation for market operations. He emphasised that the expansion of the tokenisation market is not a simple experiment but is tied to a reshaping of existing financial infrastructure.

XRPL currently accounts for about 2.28 percent of the overall tokenisation market. That is about $4 billion, and XRP was priced at about $1.13 at the time. If that share is maintained in 2030, tokenised assets on XRPL would rise to about $125.4 billion. That would be a sharp increase compared with $4 billion now.

On how that figure could translate into the XRP price, Google’s artificial intelligence (AI) model Gemini presented three hypothetical models. Gemini said there is no single formula that directly links the value of assets on a blockchain to the price of the native token. It said outcomes could differ depending on market structure and how demand is formed, even with the same data.

The first model assumed the relationship between XRP’s current market value and the value of tokenised assets grows at the same ratio. Gemini calculated the ratio at about 17.51 based on an XRP market capitalisation of $70.06 billion and tokenised assets of $4 billion. It then assumed tokenised assets rise 31.35 times, from $4 billion to $125.4 billion, and put the XRP price at $35.43. In that case, market capitalisation would be about $2.196 trillion.

The second model was based on the assumption that as the market matures, speculative price formation could decline and real utility could matter more. Gemini said that if the ratio to underlying asset value falls to 10 times, XRP’s market capitalisation could be $1.254 trillion and the price could be $20.23. If the ratio drops to 5 times, market capitalisation would fall to $627 billion and the price would drop to $10.11.

The third model assumed XRP’s value rises only by the amount of new assets flowing into XRPL. If tokenised assets increase by $121.4 billion, XRP’s market capitalisation would rise to $191.46 billion from $70.06 billion, and the price would be about $3.09, the model showed.

Gemini also pointed to variables that could affect price estimates. One is XRPL’s deflationary structure. It said a small amount of XRP is burned with each transaction, so if the ecosystem expands to around $125.4 billion and activity increases, declining supply could lift prices.

Another variable is liquidity velocity. If XRP is widely used as a means of cross-border value transfer, transaction activity could rise. Gemini said holding periods could shorten, but it also said the need for larger liquidity pools could create the possibility that institutions hold substantial amounts of XRP. That could reduce the volume circulating in the market and support prices, it said.

The calculations are an example of estimating what price range could emerge if an expanding tokenisation market coincides with XRPL maintaining its share, rather than a definitive forecast of the XRP price. The key point is that the size of tokenised assets, network usage and liquidity demand were presented together as variables in valuing XRP.