XRP’s long-term 2030 price outlook is converging in a similar range in major institutions’ analysis and technical indicators.

On June 30 local time, blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that XRP analyst ChartNerd noted that long-term projections presented by Standard Chartered and Bitwise largely align with Fibonacci extension targets.

The current market trend differs. XRP trades at $1.04 and is down 6 percent over the past week, 21 percent over the past month and 43 percent so far this year. Long-term optimism remains, but in the short term it is being affected by a 2026 bear market and broader weakness in the cryptocurrency market.

Standard Chartered earlier this year lowered its short-term outlook while raising its long-term target. Geoffrey Kendrick (제프리 켄드릭), head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, cut his 2026 XRP target to $2.80 from $8. The change reflects XRP’s steep decline during the 2026 bear market.

Its long-term roadmap stayed on an upward track. Standard Chartered saw XRP reaching $7 in 2027, $12.60 in 2028, $19.60 in 2029 and $28 in 2030. If $28 materialises, XRP’s market capitalisation would be about $1.7 trillion. The long-term outlook through 2030 was presented on the premise of broader institutional adoption, inflows into an XRP spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) and improved regulatory clarity.

Bitwise offered multiple scenarios through 2030 instead of a single price target. Applying a valuation framework based on the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), it presented three cases depending on adoption speed, the regulatory environment and the cryptocurrency market growth rate.

In a bearish scenario, it saw the 2030 price falling to as low as $0.13 if XRP adoption is limited in payments and tokenisation. In a bullish scenario, it put the price at $12.68 on the premise of steady growth and limited regulatory disruptions. Its most optimistic scenario projected $29.32. That would require XRP to secure a meaningful share in global payments and real-world asset (RWA) tokenisation markets, with market capitalisation approaching $2 trillion.

ChartNerd compared those institutional projections with long-term Fibonacci extension levels. He explained that the roughly $8, $12, $28 and $29 ranges presented by Standard Chartered and Bitwise overlap closely with 2030 Fibonacci targets. He described the comparison as a “thought experiment” rather than a “price forecast” and stressed the projections remain speculative in nature.

Even if long-term outlooks point to the same range, the assumptions are clear. The scenarios from Standard Chartered and Bitwise vary depending on favourable regulation, institutional adoption, ETF demand, macroeconomic conditions and whether the broader cryptocurrency market recovers. In this environment, XRP still shows a wide gap from those long-term targets, while bear-market pressure is weighing more heavily in the short term.