Bitcoin selling pressure from long-term holders of 5 years or more has fallen to its lowest level in 19 months.

On June 23, blockchain media outlet Cointelegraph reported that market indicators point to the possibility that bitcoin’s price bottom will form around September.

Based on data from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, the 90-day average amount spent by investors who bought bitcoin more than 5 years ago was tallied at 962 BTC. That is the lowest level since November 2024. Spending by this group surged sharply three times over the past 2 years, reaching 3,860 BTC in May 2024.

Analyst Darkfost pointed out that spending by long-term holders in this cycle rose to an all-time high. Based on an indicator that tracks the volume actually moved on the bitcoin network, he said there were three large selling waves after a strong bull run. More recently, that pressure has cooled quickly. The 90-day moving average fell to 962 BTC, a 19-month low.

The highest purchase cost basis among this group’s holdings was presented at about $63,200. It is close to the current price range, but it means many long-term holders are not choosing to sell. It is read as a sign that the balance is shifting toward holding rather than stop-loss selling by long-term holders.

By contrast, pressure from new investors appears to have increased. Analyst Axel Adler Jr said aNUPL, an adjusted net unrealized profit and loss indicator, fell from around 0 a month ago to -0.14. He explained that with bitcoin trading around $62,500, the average holder has moved back into unrealized loss territory. He said the indicator stayed below 0 for nearly half of the past 3 months, and viewed the pressure as concentrated on new market participants rather than broad capitulation by long-term holders.

As for the timing of a market bottom, an analysis aligned with the halving cycle was presented. Analyst LP explained that in the previous bear market, 826 days after the halving the market entered the final capitulation phase, and after moving sideways for 70 to 110 days, a major low formed. Applying that yardstick to the current cycle puts the 826-day point on July 6. Using the same time window suggests a potential bottom zone could form in early September.

Another trader, Titan, pointed out that downside liquidity remains below current levels based on the quarterly chart. He said a low around $58,900 has not yet been tested, and that a fair value gap is open between $49,000 and $58,900. He added that if the quarterly low remains intact until September, interest in that liquidity zone could grow further, and the market bottom could ultimately form between the third and fourth quarters, he said.

Accordingly, the market is entering a phase where reduced selling by long-term holders, rising losses among new investors and a halving-based bottom scenario are converging at the same time. The key question is whether bitcoin will continue an additional upward move after early July, or first check the lower liquidity zone.

OG selling slows to Its lowest level snce late 2024 This cycle has seen the most significant OG selling in Bitcoin's history, captured here through STXO data. ⌈STXO stands for Spent Transaction Outputs, a metric that tracks the volume of BTC moved on-chain. When OGs… pic.twitter.com/Rez4JrhKNF