Stellar (XLM) has entered a phase in which its first major golden cross of 2026 could form.

On June 22 local time, blockchain media outlet U.Today reported that on the daily chart the 50-day moving average has reached the 200-day moving average, and the market is watching whether a clear upside break emerges in the coming days.

The key question is whether the 50-day line will move above the 200-day line. If it breaks above, the golden cross is confirmed. If it turns lower, it is interpreted as a dead cross. The 50-day line is currently maintaining an upward direction, tilting expectations toward a golden cross.

Price action is also supporting that view. Stellar has recently shown strong gains on positive catalysts and has risen 47.3 percent over the past 30 days. If the signal is completed, it would be the first golden cross of 2026. The previous major golden cross occurred in July 2025.

Past cases, however, caution against simple optimism. At that time, Stellar rose to $0.52 and then the golden cross appeared, after which the price fell over the following weeks. A similar pattern is emerging this time. Stellar surged to $0.297 in late May before pulling back, and the market is now focused on whether the advance extends or profit-taking persists.

In the near term, it is important whether the price holds above the daily 50-day and 200-day lines. If it successfully defends that area, it could maintain the current uptrend and leave room to retest $0.3. If it slips below the moving averages, the significance of the technical signal could weaken.

On the supply-demand side, Binance's listing of new trading pairs is an additional variable. Binance plans to add XLM/U and XLM/USD1 trading on its spot platform from July 23. Binance said the move will strengthen users' trading experience. It will also support trading bot services for spot algorithmic orders for XLM/U and XLM/USD1.

A network upgrade schedule is also in place. Stellar's "Zipper" (Protocol 27) is scheduled for release in early July and will add authentication delegation for custom accounts and Soroban address credentials linked to addresses. A mainnet upgrade vote is scheduled for July 8. The timeline comes after a testnet upgrade.

Ultimately, Stellar is seeing technical signals, an expanded trading environment and a protocol upgrade align in the same period. The market is expected to check whether the golden cross actually forms and whether the signal leads to further gains or weakens amid recent profit-taking.