XRP's recent decline appears to have been driven more by reduced leverage in the derivatives market than by selling in the spot market.

On June 19, blockchain media outlet The Crypto Basic reported that XRP rose to around $1.29 at one point last week before sliding to about $1.12, falling more than 13 percent. It said the main downward pressure came from the unwinding of futures positions rather than an exit by spot investors.

Binance open interest was cited as a key basis. Based on CryptoQuant data, Binance XRP open interest fell 14.5 percent over 24 hours, to about $215.4 million from about $255.0 million. Open interest is an indicator of the size of positions remaining in futures and perpetual contracts. When this figure falls alongside prices, the market interprets it as deleveraging in which voluntary position cuts or forced liquidations proceed at the same time.

Selling dominance was also clear in the futures market. Binance perpetual futures cumulative volume delta fell to as low as -$802.8 million during XRP's decline. The indicator shows the gap between aggressive buying and aggressive selling in the perpetual futures market. A sharp move into negative territory means selling was much stronger than buying. The market viewed leveraged long positions as being pushed out in large numbers as prices fell.

By contrast, spot-market moves were relatively limited. Binance spot cumulative volume delta fell to about -$158.7 million, but that was much smaller than the decline in the futures-market indicators. The report said that if investors had rapidly dumped actual holdings, spot-market selling would also have had to expand to a level close to the futures market, but that pattern was not clear this time.

This has led to the view that the adjustment has more to do with leveraged position unwinding than with eroding confidence among long-term holders. If a price drop is led by spot selling, it could signal that investors are distributing their holdings, increasing the possibility of a longer decline. But when liquidations and falling open interest are central, selling pressure could ease after a substantial portion of forced selling is cleared.

Still, it is difficult to say that XRP has already confirmed a bottom. A key indicator the market needs to check first is whether open interest stabilises at current levels. If the decline in open interest stops and XRP holds a support line, it could signal that the liquidation phase is entering its final stage. If open interest continues to fall, it would mean there are leveraged positions still left to be unwound.

Spot cumulative volume delta should also be monitored. So far, the decline in the spot market has been smaller than in the futures market. But if this indicator deteriorates sharply, selling could spread from derivatives traders to ordinary investors. That could again raise the risk of further declines.

The market is also watching whether the perpetual futures cumulative volume delta, which fell to -$802.8 million, rebounds. If the indicator recovers, it could signal that aggressive buying is flowing back into the futures market. XRP's near-term direction is therefore expected to be influenced more by whether leveraged liquidations are actually ending than by whether spot selling expands.