An analysis says XRP is showing price action similar to just before a sharp rise at the end of 2024.

On June 19, blockchain media outlet Decrypto reported that market analyst Tom claimed the current XRP chart almost overlaps the pre-2024 rally pattern.

XRP has been in a downtrend that began in the fourth quarter of 2025, slipping to the low $1 range. That is down 68 percent from a peak of $3.6 recorded in July 2025. On June 1 it fell below a $1.27 to $1.31 support zone and has failed to regain that range, trading around $1.13.

In an analysis posted on X, formerly Twitter, Tom presented an overlay of XRP moves since March 2024 and current price action. He said the fractals in the two periods almost matched.

In the 2024 move he compared, XRP found support after falling from a mid-March high of $0.745 to $0.42 in April. It then stayed weak in a $0.40 to $0.50 range and at one point slipped to $0.38 before rebounding. This weak sideways trade continued through 2024, but a surge began from the $0.50 range after Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election in November.

At the time, XRP rose to $1.26 on Nov. 16, 2024, breaking above $1 for the first time in more than three years. It then climbed to $1.63 in late November and to $2.9 on Dec. 3, 2024, before reaching $3.4 in January 2025.

Tom said this year's moves also look similar. XRP fell from $2.41 in January 2026 to $1.1 in early February and then rebounded, but failed to break resistance around $1.6. From February to May it traded weakly in a $1.2 to $1.4 range, then fell again to $1.05 in early June.

He said the current period resembles the rebound phase after the $0.38 low in July 2024. If the pattern repeats, he claimed XRP could rebound to a $1.4 to $1.6 range, trade sideways for months and then top $7 during a breakout. His scenario is that it could then climb to $8.1 after a pullback. Tom also said on X that a 1.272 Fibonacci extension target points to $8.42, which would be a 616 percent rise from the current price.

There is no guarantee past moves will be repeated. The current market environment is different from 2024, and many see the rise then as driven more by Trump's election win than by XRP's technical strength. Some also argue that without similar bullish catalysts, it would be hard for the same rally to recur.