A bold forecast has emerged that XRP could surge to $8 to $10 in 2026 if it repeats the past long-term rally pattern of gold, a representative safe-haven asset.

On Jan. 6, blockchain outlet Cointelegraph cited an analysis by cryptocurrency analyst Steph is Crypto, saying XRP could have upside potential of at least 230 percent and as much as 310 percent from current levels if it follows the so-called “fractal” pattern seen in gold’s past rally structure.

Gold’s past chart, used for comparison in the analysis, shows that from 2020 to 2022 its price formed a typical five-stage structure under Elliott Wave Theory and went through a prolonged correction phase. In November 2022, after building sufficient momentum, gold finally broke above a long-term resistance line and entered a broad uptrend. After surging about 180 percent, gold in December 2025 hit an all-time high of $4,550 per ounce, surprising the market.

The main basis of the analysis is that the recent technical waves shown by XRP are strikingly similar to gold’s trajectory just before its sharp rally at the time. XRP has moved sideways for months within a long falling channel, building energy for a rise. As 2026 began, it jumped nearly 30 percent, sending a strong signal of a trend reversal.

The outlook is not entirely rosy. XRP’s current chart movement also resembles the early stage of the 2021 to 2022 downturn, when it experienced a record 85 percent plunge. At the time, even as XRP’s price rose, the relative strength index, or RSI, which indicates upward momentum, fell instead, showing a “bearish divergence,” widely seen as a typical signal of a downside reversal.

In particular, the 100-week exponential moving average, or EMA, is cited as a key variable that will determine the direction ahead. In past downturns, XRP repeatedly tried to break above the 100-week EMA and went through tests, but ultimately failed to overcome resistance from the downtrend line, sinking and entering a long correction phase.

XRP remains below both the long-term downtrend line and the 100-week EMA. If XRP decisively breaks above this strong resistance line, it would open a path for a rapid rise to $3, the 1.618 Fibonacci level. But if it fails to break through, the analysis says a wave of selling could push it back into a correction toward the $1.61 to $1.97 range.

Market attention is ultimately focused on whether XRP can break through the technical resistance wall it faces. This week is expected to be a critical turning point that will determine whether it follows gold’s path and enters a broad uptrend in 2026, or hits technical limits and slips back into a deep correction phase.

$XRP is doing something very interesting here. After a long corrective phase, XRP has completed a clean wave-4 structure, formed a falling wedge, and is now breaking out. Now compare it to gold. Gold went through the same process first. A similar corrective structure, a… pic.twitter.com/YMM939jDAc