[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] XRP has recently slid to $1.05, but analysis suggests the final low of this down cycle may still be ahead.

On June 15 (local time), blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that market analyst PiraTime, comparing past XRP bear markets with the current trend, saw a possibility that a long-term bottom could form in the fourth quarter of 2026.

The key point is that the current down cycle is following a trajectory very similar to the 2022 bear market. PiraTime aligned the two cycles using the pre-bull market low as a baseline and compared the drawdowns over time. The analyst noted that in both periods, about 680 to 700 days after a bottom formed, XRP traded about 70 percent below its peak.

Applying that pattern to the prior cycle, XRP hit a low of $0.1013 during the COVID-19 shock in March 2020 and then fell to $0.58 in January 2022, about 680 days later. That was down 69.7 percent from the prior peak of $1.96. But that price was not the final bottom. XRP continued to weaken and slid to $0.2910 in mid-June 2022, forming the actual low at about 84 percent below the prior peak.

The current cycle has shown a similar flow. XRP fell to $1.05 on June 6, 2026, which is 70.1 percent below the July 2025 peak of $3.60. The timing also overlaps with about 701 days after the market bottom in June 2022.

PiraTime said the recent sharp fall should not be taken as confirmation that the bottom is in. In the previous cycle, the decline did not end when XRP first entered the 70 percent drawdown zone, and the market made the true low only after sliding for "a few more months".

The most notable point in the analysis is the time calculation. PiraTime estimated that the final low in the previous bear market came 827 days after the March 2020 low. Applying the same calculation to this cycle gives Oct. 10, 2026. That date also marks exactly one year after the October 2025 "flash crash". XRP fell about 56 percent at the time.

PiraTime therefore presented October to November 2026 as the key bottoming window for this cycle. Specifically, the analyst viewed Oct. 10 to Nov. 5 as a bottom-search period. If the current trend keeps to the earlier pattern, XRP could fall further to around $0.57 and then form a long-term bottom.

PiraTime also drew a line against taking the comparison as a definitive forecast of future prices. The analyst said the current cycle appears to be moving about 3 percent more slowly than the previous one, and described the comparison as only a "historical guide". From an investor’s perspective, it means there is a need to check whether an extension of declines similar to the past is reproduced, rather than concluding a trend reversal based only on the recent rebound.

XRP rebounded 4.8 percent over the weekend, but it is down 11 percent on the month and down 35 percent year-to-date. The broader cryptocurrency market rebounded on a recent peace agreement between the United States and Iran, but XRP has not recovered its declines enough. Against that backdrop, market attention is shifting from a short-term rebound to when, and at what price level, this cycle’s actual low will be confirmed.

XRP time harmonics, part 2 I anchored both cycles to their pre bullrun low and counted forward. The counts line up almost to the day: 680–700 days off the floor → both cycles sat -70% below their top. 2022: −69.7% 2026: −70.1% (we just passed this mark in early… https://t.co/dT3bpI8oHC pic.twitter.com/kj1OCEHRWb