Dogecoin is again showing a chart structure that repeatedly appeared just before past major rallies, drawing market attention to the possibility of further gains.

On June 15, blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that trader Tardigrade analysed the monthly Heikin Ashi chart and said the move resembles structures seen just before sharp rises in 2017 and 2020.

In a post on X, formerly Twitter, Tardigrade pointed to Dogecoin repeatedly forming a similar structure. The key is a long period of price compression inside a symmetrical triangle, followed by an upside breakout. The price then retests the breakout area and a parabolic expansion follows. He viewed this as similar to the pattern that appeared ahead of moves to new all-time highs in 2017 and 2020.

In the past, the first phase lasted from 2014 to early 2017. A breakout came around $0.000208 in March 2017, and the price rose to $0.0187 in January 2018. The second phase formed after the 2018 high, and after a breakout in July 2020, a full-fledged rise unfolded from November 2020. Dogecoin started at $0.0025 and climbed to $0.74, its highest price to date.

Market attention is on whether this cycle is following a similar path. After an upside breakout in October 2024, Dogecoin hit a high of $0.484 in December 2024, then entered a long correction and was pushed back toward the convergence point of a multi-year triangle. Tardigrade said a drop to $0.077 two weeks ago corresponded to this cycle’s apex retest.

Technical analysis treats such retests as a turning point in a broader trend. If the price revisits a former resistance area and successfully holds it as support, selling pressure can weaken and long-term buying can be seen as returning. As a basis for the comparison, Dogecoin in 2017 and 2020 also checked the area around the apex again before moving into a steep rise.

Tardigrade said that if the past pattern holds, Dogecoin could try higher resistance areas again within the next few months. On the chart, a parabolic expansion toward $3 was also suggested. That implies upside potential of 3,310 percent from the current price of $0.088.

Conditions are also clear. Dogecoin must stay above the support zone it has retested and show an actual recovery in buying interest for a larger rally scenario to hold. The accumulation of 30 billion Dogecoin by whale investors in recent weeks was cited as a positive signal in terms of supply and demand.

If it fails to hold this support area, it would become difficult to simply compare the move with the 2017 and 2020 cycles. Ultimately, key variables for Dogecoin’s price will be whether it can solidify the triangle-apex retest area as support and whether buying returns above that level.

The key question is whether Dogecoin can solidify this retest area as a support line. If a similar structure repeats, expectations for further gains could increase, but if support breaks, applying the 2017 and 2020-style surge pattern as-is is likely to become difficult.

$Doge/monthly (Heikin Ashi)#Dogecoin just retested the apex of the triangle — and it's ready to send. 2017: Triangle compression → Apex retest → Parabolic rally 2020: Triangle compression → Apex retest → Parabolic rally 2026: Triangle compression → Apex retest → ? The… pic.twitter.com/dfQNqMynbE