[Digital Today reporter Kim Ye-seul (김예슬)] Bitcoin is flashing its strongest oversold signal since the March 2020 COVID-19 shock, bringing a possible rebound to the $70,000 level back into focus.

Cointelegraph reported on Friday that Bitcoin's daily relative strength index (RSI) fell to around 15.5. That is far below 30, a level generally seen as oversold.

The signal came after Bitcoin fell about 30 percent over the past month. Markets said investor sentiment was weighed down by geopolitical risks, rising oil prices, fading expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 and worries over Strategy's recent Bitcoin sales. Such extreme RSI lows often overlap with points where selling pressure is exhausted, putting the spotlight on whether short-term buying emerges.

Similar moves have occurred before. In 2020, Bitcoin's RSI fell to around 15.56 and then rebounded about 50 percent. At the time, an emergency shift by the Fed to near-zero rates and large-scale bond buying supported the recovery. Still, rebounds have also followed sharp oversold conditions even without strong support from macro factors.

In February, Bitcoin's daily RSI also fell to around 15.86, but the price held the $60,000 support level. Bitcoin then recovered about 30 percent toward $82,850. Buyers are again defending the $60,000 area. Even as selling came with trading volume, the failure to clearly break that level supports a short-term rebound scenario.

If the zone holds, Bitcoin could try to retrace toward around $70,650, the 20-day exponential moving average, in the coming weeks. If $60,000 breaks decisively, expectations for a rebound would weaken and the price could slide to the mid-$50,000s, cited as the next support area. That is why markets are focused on whether $60,000 holds.

On-chain indicators also show mounting pressure on investors. Checkonchain data show the realised profit-and-loss ratio for short-term holders fell to a record low. The gauge shows whether recent buyers are selling at a profit or at a loss. The deeper it falls into negative territory, the more it suggests new holders are unloading below their entry prices, which markets interpret as fear-driven selling.

The market is reacting more sensitively to whether prices hold up afterward than to the oversold signal itself, the outlet said. In the short term, the key variable is whether Bitcoin can defend $60,000 and produce a technical rebound, or whether more stop-loss selling pours in and another leg of bottom-finding follows, it said.