Bitcoin (BTC) fell to a 4-month low, returning to the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) that acted as a key resistance line in the 2022 bear market.

Cointelegraph, a blockchain media outlet, reported on June 4 that BTC/USD retested the 200-week SMA zone for the first time since 2023.

Based on TradingView data, the 200-week SMA is currently at $61,626. The indicator is seen as a representative baseline in bitcoin bear markets. The price last touched the zone in October 2023, and it served as resistance in the 2022 bear market until bulls regained control.

The market views the zone as a short-term turning point. Social media channel operator Colin Talks Crypto called the return to the 200-week SMA a "key milestone". He said it will come down to whether it rebounds from here or falls further. He also presented a chart comparing several past bull and bear patterns, and said the bearish flag breakdown seen in early 2026 is repeating.

Some are focusing on technical oversold signals. Bitcoin’s daily relative strength index (RSI) fell to 17.35. That is the lowest level since 2020, matching the low during a sharp drop in February this year. An analysis account on X named after economist Frank A. Fetter assessed that BTC/USD is "virtually near the most oversold zone ever".

Crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe also looked at the RSI and the retest of the 200-week SMA together, and mentioned a possible buy zone. He said, "If you have conviction in bitcoin, now is the zone to build a position." He also pointed to Strategy’s corporate debt issue as a variable for the short-term price move.

Van de Poppe said that if Strategy-related STRC and depegging problems turn upward again, bitcoin is also likely to rebound. The market is therefore watching not only the size of the drop, but also whether the 200-week SMA holds, the pace of RSI recovery and whether Strategy-related concerns ease.

The decline is meaningful in that the price has re-entered a key long-term support and resistance line. Whether the zone that was resistance in the 2022 bear market acts as support this time, or merely marks an intermediate point in a further decline, has emerged as a factor that will determine the near-term direction.