Bitcoin has slid to a two-month low, and the market has raised warnings that a pattern similar to the 2022 bear market is emerging again.

On June 3, Cointelegraph reported that bitcoin fell to as low as $65,362 on Bitstamp before volatility eased somewhat, but forecasts have continued that key support levels could wobble.

The decline came after large-scale liquidations. Market participants are focusing less on the short-term drop than on whether the current zone will hold a mid- to long-term trendline. In particular, analyst Rekt Capital pointed to bitcoin's 50-month exponential moving average (EMA) as a key support level. That area is around $66,628.

In a post on X, formerly Twitter, Rekt Capital warned that bitcoin is likely over time to break below that EMA and continue a broader downward trend. He analysed that if the 2022 bear-market pattern repeats, bitcoin could first stage a relief rally and form a lower high, then test the 50-month EMA again.

He added that while bitcoin has historically tended to rebound initially at the 50-month EMA, it has also shown a pattern of losing that support as bear markets deepen.

Other traders also pointed to a similar pattern. Analyst Leviathan said the 2026 bear market is perfectly tracking the previous cycle and identified $60,000 as an important line. Whether the market holds the $60,000 level has effectively emerged as a key variable that will determine the next direction.

For the short-term trend, a sideways outlook also emerged. Trader Killa, citing 2022 price moves, forecast that bitcoin could trade in a box range between $63,000 and $65,000 for several weeks for now. That means a period of price consolidation could continue rather than an immediate move to a clear direction after a sharp drop.

Not all signals were pessimistic. Analytics firm Paradox focused on historical returns when the 50-month moving average was lost and later recovered. Paradox said bitcoin broke below the monthly 50-month moving average in 2022 but regained it five months later, then rose 715 percent over the following two years. The market is thus also watching the potential scale of any rebound if a later recapture occurs, not only whether support breaks now.

In fact, in February this year bitcoin posted several daily closes below this trendline, but it did not lead to a complete breakdown. In March and April, the line held as support. As a result, a key variable in this correction phase is whether the 50-month EMA again acts as a defensive line or ultimately breaks down as in 2022.

In this situation, the market is watching two zones together. One is the $60,000 level, and the other is the 50-month EMA. If the former is psychological support, the latter is a technical benchmark for gauging the mid- to long-term trend. Whether bitcoin forms a lower high on a short-term rebound and then faces renewed downward pressure, or succeeds again in defending support, is expected to determine the path ahead.

A little bit of optimism for you guys.. If $BTC follows the 2022 bottom formation. We bounce for weeks at the 63-65K region. pic.twitter.com/6DEeaGIOka