Bitcoin briefly rebounded near a key on-chain support line, bringing $78,000 into focus as a short-term target.

Cointelegraph reported on May 31, local time, that bitcoin rose about 2.5 percent over the weekend and climbed back to around $74,000 on May 30. The recovery started near $72,500.

This low formed near the realised price of holders who have held for 3 to 6 months. Glassnode data show this group’s average purchase price at about $71,400, and analyst Marcus Corvinus (마커스 코르비누스) viewed it as bitcoin’s strongest short-term support. The report said 3 to 6-month holders still sit in profit, giving them a strong incentive to defend that price area.

The next upside target was put at $78,200. That level overlaps with the realised price range of 3 to 6-month holdings. Bitcoin lost that level during a sharp market drop in October 2025.

Historical data also pointed to upside potential over the medium to long term. Since 2017, after bitcoin broke above this indicator, the average gain over 30 days was 2.3 percent, over 90 days 21.9 percent and over 180 days 36.6 percent. Based on a current price around $74,000, the report calculated possible levels of $75,700 in one month, $90,200 in three months and $101,100 in six months.

Still, the reliability of short-term signals was relatively low. Under the same conditions, the share that led to a profit after one month was 54.2 percent, rising to 66.7 percent after three months and 79.2 percent after six months. That suggests the probability of gains increases over longer periods, but it also shows the short-term direction is not decisive.

The technical picture remains cautious. After a sharp drop from around $98,000, its 2026 high, bitcoin has formed a bearish flag pattern, and prices are now stabilising near the lower rising trendline. If this rebound continues, the move could open up toward around $90,000, where the upper boundary sits. That area also overlaps with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement and aligns with the realised price zone for 3 to 6-month holders.

As a result, $90,000 was presented as the key upper level for the coming months. The condition is that bullish buying holds the current support zone. If bitcoin closes below the lower trendline on a daily basis, a downside break could be confirmed. In that case, prices could fall further into the $50,000 to $60,000 range, depending on the breakdown point.

In that scenario, the character of the recent rebound could also change. If the support-line bounce holds, the medium-term recovery scenario gains weight. If the lower boundary breaks, the move would remain a temporary rebound within a larger downtrend.

Market attention is focused on whether bitcoin can defend the on-chain support around $71,400 and attempt a recovery toward $78,000. With the technical structure still within a bearish trend, the report said whether this rebound becomes the start of a medium-term recovery or a brief pullback before further declines depends on whether support holds.