An assessment said bitcoin’s (BTC) 200-week moving average has climbed above $61,000, keeping its long-term uptrend structure intact.

On May 31 (local time), blockchain media outlet BeInCrypto reported that Blockstream CEO Adam Back (아담 백) mentioned the rise in bitcoin’s 200-week moving average on his social media, again focusing on it as a signal of structural strength.

The 200-week moving average is a long-term indicator that reflects weekly closing prices over about four years. It is used as a baseline showing bitcoin’s long-term trend rather than short-term price swings. With the latest rise, the indicator gained about $1,000 in less than a month after topping $60,000 in early May. This is interpreted as showing long-term holders are steadily absorbing supply coming onto the market at current price levels.

Back said, "Bitcoin 200wma passed $61k," directly underscoring the rise in the long-term trend indicator. At the time, bitcoin’s spot price was trading well above that level, and the gap between the spot price and the 200-week moving average that Back first highlighted in early May was also holding.

The indicator has previously served as a key support line near the bottom of bitcoin market cycles. During the 2022 bear market, bitcoin showed an unusual pattern of closing a weekly candle below this line, but then recovered quickly. As subsequent cycles progressed, the baseline used to gauge the long-term bullish structure also moved to gradually higher levels.

Back also cited a phrase known as a remark by Charlie Munger. He referenced a comment to the effect that if someone had bought blue-chip stocks only at the 200-week moving average, they could have significantly outperformed the S&P500 over the long term. He added that Munger and Warren Buffett did not understand bitcoin, and argued it was similar to a view that underestimated the early internet.

The remarks are closer to a long-term investment discipline than to short-term price optimism. Areas near the 200-week moving average have historically functioned as discounted zones relative to bitcoin’s long-term trend, and a steady accumulation strategy was described as more effective than active short-term trading. Back has also repeatedly supported such an accumulation approach in the past.

The market sees whether the 200-week moving average rises further as depending on the durability of demand. For the current uptrend line to continue rising, buying by institutions and individuals needs to keep absorbing sell supply. On-chain data was also presented as evidence that such structural buying is being maintained for now.

As a result, the next point of focus in the bitcoin market is shifting from the spot price itself to the gap with the long-term trend line, and whether demand will persist enough to maintain that gap. The analysis said the 200-week moving average’s move up another step has increased its significance for long-term holders as a benchmark for gauging market bottoms and the structural trend.

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