[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] An analysis showed bitcoin could face near-term downside pressure of around 10 percent as it becomes more likely to end May lower.

Cointelegraph, a blockchain media outlet, reported on May 27 that bitcoin fell about 10 percent after failing to break resistance around $83,000 and is heading toward a monthly close in the red.

The key point is that a weak May close has often been followed by short-term underperformance in the past. Bitcoin’s historical pattern has shown a short-term bearish signal similar to Wall Street’s saying, “sell in May and go away.” Bitcoin posted negative returns in May in 2013, 2015, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2023, and the average return over the following month was minus 10.1 percent. The average three-month return was minus 3.3 percent.

Assuming the current price is around $74,000, calculations based on past averages suggest June could open toward about $68,200 and August toward about $73,350. The average three-month return was also tallied at minus 3.3 percent, confirming that there was no clear rebound over the summer after a May decline.

Longer-term performance differs from the short term. Bitcoin’s average return six months after ending May lower was presented at about 139 percent. That figure was heavily influenced by a surge at the end of 2013. Excluding that case, the six-month average return drops to 12.9 percent, and a November price projection of about $85,600 was presented as a more realistic range rather than about $181,300.

The question is whether this May weakness is a simple pullback or part of a bear-market structure. If bitcoin ends this month below $76,000, this negative monthly candle would fall within a bear-market structure. In 2018 and 2022, May declines did not lead to a quick bottom. At the time, bitcoin broke below key support levels, made lower highs and lower lows, and then fell by an average 26 percent after one month, 21.6 percent after three months, and about 46 percent after six months.

For this reason, the meaning of a May decline differs depending on market conditions. In a normal cyclical phase or a cycle transition, May weakness often meant “short-term weakness,” but in a bear market it was a signal that appeared ahead of “deeper capitulation.”

For now, it is difficult to say 2026 is a fully confirmed bitcoin bear market. In past bear markets, the breakdown of key cycle support levels appeared first before full-scale capitulation. In 2018, the $6,000 level broke, and in 2022, the $30,000 to $32,000 range broke before declines intensified.

Bitcoin is still trading around $74,000 and remains above $60,000, which has been presented as the current cycle support level. If it falls below $60,000, the bear-market scenario could gain further support. A monthly close below $70,000 to $72,000 could also spur selling, and an additional drop into the $60,000 to $65,000 zone could make it hard to view the current decline as a simple pullback.

Ultimately, the level the market will watch this week is May’s monthly close. Based on historical data alone, it is not necessarily an unconditional “sell in May and go away” signal for long-term investors, but it at least suggests bitcoin’s upward trend could take a breather in the short term.