An analysis says bitcoin is trading far below its fair value based on global M2 money supply and its ratio to gold.

Cointelegraph reported on Tuesday that cryptocurrency trader and YouTuber RobinHD argued bitcoin has been mispriced on the downside on a global liquidity basis since the start of 2026.

In a post on X, RobinHD said bitcoin is trading in a historically unusual undervaluation zone. He said bitcoin is well below its global liquidity-based fair value.

As evidence, a chart compared global M2 with BTC/XAU, a ratio of bitcoin to gold. A chart by André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, showed global M2 at a record high while the BTC/XAU ratio fell well below its expected path. The ratio slid to 2 sigma below the fair-value line, posting a negative Z-score.

Bitcoin has previously shown a strong positive correlation with rising M2. While the two indicators have not moved in exact lockstep, bitcoin/dollar has tended to be relatively strong during periods when money supply rises over an extended time. If that relationship still holds, RobinHD said bitcoin is now completely mispriced.

Under that interpretation, the next phase could be an aggressive re-rating in which bitcoin catches up with global liquidity flows. Unlike stock markets that extended record highs this month, the crypto market moved differently.

Some disagree with viewing M2 as a key driver of bitcoin prices. Julio Moreno, head of research at on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, said the bitcoin-M2 correlation is flawed by design. He argued there is no daily M2 data and that much of the time-series change is effectively driven by China’s M2, which rises steadily.

Critics also said it does not match the timing of past bear markets. Trading account Cryptic Trades wrote in a post on X last year that in 2022 bitcoin bottomed first around $18,000 before M2 peaked. Trader and analyst Rekt Capital also said global M2 kept rising for months after bitcoin set its bull-market peak in November 2021, only peaking in April 2022.