[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] XRP has slid to the lower edge of a rising channel it has maintained for three months, increasing short-term downside pressure. With weak smart money signals, shrinking whale positions and the potential for a moving-average dead cross appearing at the same time, markets are focusing on whether $1.36 holds as a key turning point.

BeInCrypto, a blockchain outlet, reported on May 19 (local time) that XRP is trading about 1 percent above the lower boundary of its rising channel. The problem is that major supply-demand and technical indicators are starting to flash bearish signals at the same time.

The first point markets focused on was the Smart Money Index (SMI). The indicator is used to track trading flows of institutions or better-informed investors, and it fell below its signal line on May 17. After the same signal appeared in late April, XRP fell about 7 percent over the next few days.

Technical momentum is also becoming a bigger burden. Markets are watching the possibility that the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) falls below the 50-day EMA, a bearish crossover. If the so-called dead cross is confirmed, it would mean the short-term trend could tilt downward for the first time in months.

Market anxiety is growing in particular because the structure of the rising channel that has held since early February is itself being shaken. XRP has extended losses since forming a recent high on May 14 and has been pushed down to the channel floor. The outlet described it as "three bearish signals switching on at the same time at the bottom of the rising channel."

On-chain data show a similar pattern. A whale cohort holding 10 million to 100 million XRP increased its share of holdings to 17.63 percent as it kept accumulating since last month, but recently cut it back to about 17.37 percent. Markets are raising the possibility that whale investors took profits during the latest rebound.

Exchange inflows also point to a sell-dominant market. Glassnode's exchange net position change indicator has stayed mostly in positive territory over the past month. That means more XRP flowed into exchanges than was withdrawn, which is generally read as a signal of rising sell-side supply.

Price action already reflects some of the bearish mood. XRP is down about 24 percent since the start of the year and is also down about 3.5 percent over the past month. With smart money outflows, whale selling and net selling by retail investors continuing at the same time, analysis suggests whether the key support holds is increasingly likely to determine the next direction.

The price level drawing the most attention is $1.36. If XRP closes below that area on a daily basis, it would confirm a breakdown of the rising channel and open the possibility of additional declines to the next support at $1.27. That is about 7 percent below the current price.

For a rebound to regain traction, analysis says XRP first needs to reclaim $1.48. After that, the $1.56 area is likely to act as a strong resistance level. Some technical patterns can show a temporary break lower before a trend resumes, however, and markets are also taking a cautious view that they should confirm a clear daily close below $1.36 and whether net exchange inflows continue.

XRP is ultimately at a crossroads over whether it can defend a key support level, as it faces a choice between holding the rising channel and attempting a rebound, or sliding further.